A Study On The Spatial And Temporal Variation Of Crop Cultivation Scale And Driving Forces In Zhejiang Province

Since the 18 th Party Congress,the Party Central Committee,with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core,has made food security a top priority in the governance of the country,which means "ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grains and absolute food security",while making food security a key governance element in China.Crop cultivation is an important prerequisite for ensuring regional food security,and exploring its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms is helpful for promoting the rational use of land resources for crop cultivation,ensuring local and even national food security,and promoting the development of primary industries.There are obvious spatial differences and spatial clustering in the distribution of crop cultivation scale,and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of crop cultivation scale and its driving mechanism have obvious scale effects.On the one hand,although the various influencing factors in different regions are closely related to the scale of crop cultivation,the extent of this connection varies spatially;on the other hand,the conclusions on the interrelationship between the scale of crop cultivation and its influencing factors differ at different scales,and the interaction between the two at one spatial scale differs from the relationship at another spatial scale.In order to present a more complete picture of the interactions between crop size and the factors influencing crop cultivation,it is important to consider the following In order to present a more complete picture of the interaction mechanism between crop cultivation scale changes and its driving factors,and to coordinate the problem of regional crop cultivation land resource utilization scale,this thesis explores the interaction mechanism and its spatial scale effects based on sustainable development theory and spatial scale theory,and based on the hierarchical linear model research method,taking Zhejiang Province as an example.The main research findings are as follows:(1)The overall trend of crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province is decreasing.Temporally,the shrinkage of crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2020 can be divided into three stages of change;the overall trend of food planting scale in the crop planting structure of Zhejiang Province is basically similar to the overall trend of crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province,and the change of cash crop planting scale is smaller.Spatially,the overall spatial pattern of crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province has a small change.(2)The spatial differences of crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province are mainly manifested as intra-city differences.The results of cross-scale analysis showed that the crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province had obvious spatial differences among counties(cities and districts)in Zhejiang Province.During the observation years,intra-municipal variation caused 71.24% of the crop planting scale in the counties of Zhejiang Province,so the driving factors at the county scale were the main reason for the variation of crop planting scale within each county;inter-municipal variation caused 28.76% of the variation,so the driving factors at the municipal scale also had some influence on the crop planting scale in the counties.(3)There is a significant spatial scale effect on the driving mechanism of crop cultivation scale.The types of driving factors and the degree of action are significantly different at different scales.At the county level,the crop planting scale in Zhejiang Province is mainly influenced by the industrial structure,agricultural population,effective irrigation level and grain self-sufficiency rate of the county.The larger the proportion of tertiary industries in the county,the larger the agricultural population and the higher the grain selfsufficiency rate,the larger the crop planting scale;while the increase in the effective irrigation level means the increase in the level of agricultural modernization,which leads to the reduction of the crop planting scale.At the municipal level,it is mainly influenced by the municipal GDP,per capita disposable income of rural residents,urbanization level and food self-sufficiency rate.The higher the per capita disposable income of rural residents in the municipality and the higher the food self-sufficiency rate,the larger the crop cultivation scale in the county,while the higher the municipal GDP and urbanization level,the smaller the crop cultivation scale in the county.(4)Large-scale factors affect the role of small-scale factors in driving crop cultivation scale.42.02% of the variation in the average county crop planting scale is caused by differences in municipal gross product,rural per capita disposable income,food selfsufficiency rate,and urbanization level.In addition to the direct influence of municipal-scale influencing factors on county crop planting scale,municipal-scale driving factors also indirectly influence county crop planting scale by strengthening the driving effect of countyscale factors on crop planting scale.