The Impact Of Risk Management Adoption Decisions On Farmers' Agricultural Total Factor Productivit

Ensuring food security and realizing industrial revitalization are the top priorities of rural revitalization.And realizing the organic connection between small farmers and the development of modern agriculture and improving agricultural productivity are not only an important starting point of industrial revitalization,but also the key to ensuring food security.However,agriculture is not only a basic industry but also a typical weak industry.As the micro-decision-making body of agricultural production and management activities,farmers are often severely restricted by various uncontrollable agricultural risks in the process of agricultural production and management,such as natural risks,market risks and social risks,and these agricultural risks are becoming increasingly complex and developing towards the trend of cross-integration.In the face of a more complex and severe agricultural risk environment,an in-depth analysis of the risk management problems faced by farmers and the effectiveness of different combinations of risk management tools adopted by farmers can not only promote flexible and efficient risk management of farmers,help farmers effectively prevent and resist agricultural risks,but also help farmers play their comparative advantages in family management.To promote the integration of smallholder farmers with modern agricultural development to ensure food security and industrial revitalization.Based on China’s rural microeconomic data from 2016 to 2018 and with the help of multiple endogenous switching regression model,this paper attempts to explore the additive effect of various agricultural risk management tools adopted by farmers,in order to answer the question of which combination of risk management tools adopted by farmers can help improve their agricultural total factor productivity.Further,this paper notes that farmers have significant differences in risk probabilities and crop types.Based on multiple endogenous switching regression model,this paper discusses and analyzes the heterogeneity effects of the different risk probabilities faced by farmers and planting different crops.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,from the perspective of the whole sample,with the increase of the complexity of risk management,that is,the increase of the number of risk management tools in the combination of risk management tools adopted by farmers,the impact degree of farmers’ decision to adopt the combination of risk management tools on their agricultural total factor productivity generally shows a larger trend.Among them,the adoption of the combination of “agricultural insurance”,“crop diversification”,“contract farming and production” and “operation diversification + contract farming”by farmers can improve their agricultural total factor productivity,and the adoption decision of the combination of “production and operation diversification + contract farming” is the most effective.Second,farmers facing low risk can improve agricultural total factor productivity more by using a single risk management tool,and“agricultural insurance” is the most effective.Farmers facing high risk adopt the combination of multiple risk management tools to improve agricultural total factor productivity,and “production and operation diversification + contract farming” are the most effective.Third,compared with farmers growing food crops,farmers planting cash crops can improve agricultural total factor productivity by adopting“crop diversification”,“agricultural insurance + contract farming”,and “agricultural insurance”,“contract farming” and “production and operation diversification +contract farming” have a stronger effect on their agricultural total factor productivity.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the two aspects of building an effective extension system of agricultural risk management tools and reasonably guiding farmers to adopt the combination of risk management tools with complementary functions,providing references for how to effectively formulate risk management policies,ensure food security,realize industrial revitalization,and finally realize rural revitalization.