| ABSTRACT:Since the reform and opening up, China's transportation with economic construction has made rapid development, however, compared with the developed countries in international and the comprehensive transportation system construction, our comprehensive transportation system in meet the increasing the transport demand and reasonable coordinate the various transportation mode, there are certain disparity. The traffic of the rapid growth of the traffic volume, which embodies the change of demand, to research the corresponding transportation demand growth in demand forecasting the rule, put forward the new requirements.In this paper, the comprehensive traffic demand forecast development at home and abroad with the current situation of the study, the paper analysis the qualitative and quantitative prediction method on the comb, summarizes the contents of the comprehensive traffic demand and characteristics of comprehensive traffic demand related concepts and the demand generation principle and demand of the system are introduced, respectively from the economic and social two research in our country the comprehensive traffic passenger transport and the transport of goods related factors, the goods transport of the container transport and coal transport demand influence factors to the specific research, through the gray relational model to determine the various kinds of comprehensive traffic screening of demand forecasting the main factors, and the main factors influencing the forecast future development, then respectively by regression analysis, exponential smoothing model and combination forecast model to our country and passenger transportation, container transport demand and coal etc, the forecast for the demand for passenger, the share rate of prediction. for our country's comprehensive traffic demand forecast put forward some reference to the method, the comprehensive traffic in our country in the future development plan put forward relevant reference. |
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