| In the 14 th five year plan,the central government clearly proposed to "promote the healthy development of the infrastructure real estate trust and investment fund market".The reform of the public offering REITs market marks the central government’s intention to explore the path of deepening the financial supply side reform,revitalizing the stock assets and investment,improving the pressure of local financial liabilities and promoting the formation of a multi-level investment and financing system in the financial capital market.The policy promotion of REITs is also very rapid.With the rapid development of the public offering REITs market,various risk problems faced in the process of market pilot operation have gradually attracted market attention,and various risk problems and structural defects of many public offering REITs products have gradually emerged.The previous market’s practical experience in the field of public REITs is almost zero.This time,the research on the risk management of the first batch of public REITs pilot products is of certain practical significance.Firstly,based on the characteristics of Guangzhou Guanghe REITs products,this thesis carries out risk identification and risk assessment.In the process of risk identification and evaluation,the safety checklist method and expert investigation method are used to collect data and construct the risk index system.At the same time,the F-AHP fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and FCEM fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to evaluate the risk,and the proportion of each risk weight of Guangzhou Guanghe REITs products is clarified.This thesis analyzes all kinds of risks of products in turn according to the weight,among which the cash flow risk with the largest weight accounts for.By constructing Monte Carlo model to simulate the cash flow coverage level of products for 10000 times,this thesis quantitatively analyzes the cash flow risk of products,and makes qualitative analysis on the risk problems such as operation management and credit of products,so as to study the causes,transmission path and mechanism of risk problems.The fifth chapter begins to analyze the shortcomings of products in the process of risk management,and puts forward the improvement countermeasures of risk management according to the problems of product risk managementThis thesis finds that the main risk of the case product is the continuous profit risk of cash flow(with the largest weight),while other types of risks such as operation and management risk,moral hazard,credit risk,legal and policy risk account for a relatively small proportion,but there are also some problems.In the process of quantitative analysis of the cash flow risk of the product,it is found that during the 15 year operation period when the product holds the franchise right,the average cash flow coverage rate of the product decreases from 1.26 to 1.02,which is generally maintained at more than 1.However,there is still potential loss in the face of unexpected circumstances such as epidemic and other events.It is recommended that the cash flow coverage rate reach more than 150%.During the research on the risk management measures of case products,the research found that there were many deficiencies in the risk management measures.The supervision mechanism of "public offering + ABS" and "separation of powers" originally conceived failed,resulting in potential conflict of interest,excessive reward,distorted incentive,tunnel effect,regulatory "free rider",capture effect,binding business and other risk problems,facing greater operation and management risk problems.This thesis believes that it is necessary to focus on improving the two processes of risk control and risk monitoring by means of structural optimization and cash flow monitoring indicators.While improving the defects of the original risk management measures,we should strengthen the risk management of case products,and give specific risk management improvement countermeasures. |
