| In recent years,in response to global climate change,some countries have implemented various climate policies,which have a significant impact on global economic activities.This paper mainly focuses on the impact of climate policy on the export trade of carbon-intensive industries in China.Firstly,this paper discusses the theoretical mechanism by climate policy affects the export trade of China’s carbon-intensive industries.Secondly,this paper sorts out the development history of global and Chinese climate policies,and analyzes the current status of China’s carbon-intensive industry export trade.Then,using the difference-in-difference(DID)method,this paper conducts an empirical analysis with the entry into force of the Paris Agreement in 2016 as a policy shock,examines the impact of climate policy on the export trade of China’s carbon-intensive industries,and analyzes its impact mechanism.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from two aspects: climate policy and development of carbon-intensive industry.The results show that: First,the entry into force of the Paris Agreement will reduce the export trade volume of China’s carbon-intensive industries and inhibit the development of export trade.That is,the implementation of climate policies will reduce the scale of export trade in China’s carbon-intensive industries.Second,this paper conducts a sub-sample regression analysis by dividing industries with high,medium and low technical complexity,and concludes that the effect of the Paris Agreement on carbon-intensive industries with medium technical complexity and low technical complexity.Export trade has an inhibitory effect,while it has a positive impact on high-tech-complexity industries in carbon-intensive industries,that is,the entry into force of the Paris Agreement will have a heterogeneous impact on carbon-intensive industries with different technology levels.Third,this paper conducts sub-sample regressions on capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries,and finds that the entry into force of the Paris Agreement will have a negative impact on the export trade of carbon-intensive industries in capital-intensive industries,while the labor-intensive industries There is no significant effect,that is,the entry into force of the Paris Agreement also has a heterogeneous effect on industries with different labor-capital ratios.Fourth,this paper empirically tests the impact mechanism of climate policy on industry export trade,and finds that climate policy will bring about the "cost effect" and "compensation effect" within the industry,thus affecting the industry export trade. |
