The Effect Factor And Improvement Paths Of The Grain Productive Capacity In China

China has a large population base and is the world’s largest food consumer.Food security is directly related to the national economy and people’s livelihood,and occupies a fundamental position in economic and social development.In the short term,grain output is a key indicator for ensuring food security.In the long run,a high level of comprehensive grain production capacity is the foundation for ensuring food security.Since the 1980 s,China’s grain output has doubled.It has successfully survived the global food crisis in 2006 and the global food crisis caused by the new crown epidemic in 2020.However,we cannot be blindly optimistic,and we must clearly realize that the growth rate of grain consumption in my country is greater than that of grain production,and that grain production and grain consumption have been in a state of "tight balance" for a long time.For a long time,the increase of grain production in my country has relied on the consumption of soil fertility and the excessive input of pesticides and fertilizers.Extensive grain production has brought a serious burden to the ecological environment.The purpose of studying the factors affecting my country’s comprehensive grain production capacity and its improvement path under the complex international environment such as the impact of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to fully grasp the current level of my country’s comprehensive grain production capacity and provide policy recommendations for ensuring food security in a complex environment.First of all,this study analyzes the current situation of China’s comprehensive grain production capacity from the perspective of actual grain production capacity and grain potential production capacity.There are many problems such as significant regional differences,lack of development motivation for grain producers,and insufficient effectiveness of grain industry policies.Secondly,it analyzes the influencing factors of the comprehensive grain production capacity from both theoretical and empirical aspects.At the theoretical level,the influence of traditional production factor inputs,technological innovation and non-input factors on grain output is considered separately.Among them,stable grain sown area is the basis of grain production,and technological innovation is the internal driving force for grain output growth.Development,promoting the vertical and deepening development of the grain industry,and relying on scientific and technological innovation to promote the improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity are the main directions in the future.At the same time,it is emphasized that institutional arrangements are the guarantee for China’s grain production increase.At the empirical level,9 indicators focusing on the grain industry are selected for principal component analysis and a production function regression model is constructed.The empirical results show that the number of labor per mu has a negative value for the elasticity of China’s grain production,indicating that the input of labor in grain production at this stage is Instead of focusing solely on quantity,it is necessary to improve the overall quality and professionalism of food producers.The relative importance of each influencing factor of the comprehensive grain production capacity is not static,but changes with the different stages of grain production and development.Finally,this research proposes policy recommendations in a problem-oriented manner.This study breaks through the limitation of previous scholars to analyze the influencing factors of grain output only from the level of material input,introduces scientific and technological factors and institutional factors to analyze the comprehensive grain production capacity,and selects more comprehensive and focused indicators of influencing factors for empirical analysis.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)China’s comprehensive grain production capacity has steadily improved,but there are significant regional differences;(2)Resource endowment has the greatest impact on comprehensive grain production capacity,but there are differences between provinces;(3)The impact of scientific and technological innovation on the comprehensive grain production capacity is on the rise;(4)The impact of labor input and natural disasters on grain output is both negative,reflecting that increasing grain production should focus on improving the quality of labor and the ability to prevent and reduce disasters;In view of the research conclusions drawn,taking the Netherlands,the United States,Israel and other major international agricultural countries as realistic references,the measures to improve my country’s comprehensive grain production capacity are discussed from the perspectives of the endogenous development path of farmers and the path of external government support.Specifically,the endogenous paths of farmers include strengthening the protection of water and soil resources,promoting the construction of agricultural organizations,promoting the practicality of scientific and technological achievements,and strengthening the overall quality of farmers;the external paths of the government include improving infrastructure construction,improving agricultural insurance mechanisms,improving supporting facilities for the grain industry,and improving the socialized service system for the food industry.