Study On The Overall Grain Production Capability In China

Food is a special commodity, and its uniqueness lies in its being one of the basic food necessary for human being, also an important basis for mankind's survival and development, the stability and development of the society, and national security. It is well accepted that food is a strategic material, just like oil and freshwater resources. The importance of food safety has gradually gained more attention.Broadly speaking, there are two traditional thoughts on resolving the problem of food safety: one is to ensure food safety on the basis of domestic supply; the other is to ensure our food supply by using international market. However, the latter thought may bring tremendous potential political hazard to China, a big country with more than 1.3 billion populations, moreover, present trade infrastructure and market development situation don't have the capacity to assume massive food imports. There is no problem with self-sufficiency strategy per se, but in the course of practice, overemphasis on the self-sufficiency rate has caused three effects: the ecological load operation of the farmland; the destruction of natural resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment; and the high marginal cost of China's food production, which indicates higher domestic price and inefficient allocation of resources in China's grain production.In fact, both strategies don't have distinction between right and wrong in principle, they only adapt to different hypotheses and different stage of development in China. Therefore, the inevitable choice of China's food security strategy is the one that combines self-sufficiency strategy with trade strategy, aiming to protect and enhance the overall grain production capability.After reaching 512 million tons peak in 1998, China's grain output has been reducing for five consecutive years, dropping to 431 million tons in 2003, while grain output reached 469 million tons in 2004, 38.8 billion kg increase to output in 2003, reversing the decline situation since the 1999's. But the overall grain production capability has not been restored to the 500 million tons level. With the growth of population and the improvement in the living standards of the people, there will be a rigid increase in the demand for food. It is of paramount importance to protect and enhance the overall grain production capability, in the macro background that a gap exists in the food supply and demand and hidden troubles exist in the food safety.Using a classic article of economic growth by Shenggen Fan for reference, the dissertation constructs an analytical framework of the overall grain production capability. It classifies many factors into three aspects: input, technological changes and technical efficiency, indicating that the essence of the overall grain production capability is the...