| According to the data of the seventh census,the aging of China’s population is increasing.By2020,the proportion of people aged 60 and over has reached 18.7%,and the proportion of people aged 65 and over has accounted for 13.5%.At the same time,China’s fertility rate is declining year by year,and the high aging population will make China’s economic growth and scientific and technological innovation weak.It is also accompanied by social problems such as insufficient labor force,increased labor cost and increased burden on endowment insurance fund.In 2020,the income and expenditure gap of China’s urban workers’ basic endowment insurance fund has reached 692.6 billion yuan,and the fund income and expenditure situation is seriously unbalanced.At the same time,due to the influence of various factors,the development of China’s urban basic endowment insurance system is uneven among regions,and the difference of fund income and expenditure between regions is also increasing year by year.Some provinces have seen a situation of income exceeding expenditure,and the situation is not optimistic.The retirement insurance system is an important part of the basic social security system of our country,which directly affects the living standard of our workers.Facing the great challenge of population aging,this paper studies and analyzes the expenditure level of China’s urban workers’ basic endowment insurance fund,and deeply discusses the factors affecting the fund expenditure level,so as to ensure the stable development of the system.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of the differences between and within regions in China from the two aspects of the basic endowment insurance fund system and finance of urban employees in the East,Middle and West regions.It is found that there are great differences in the system coverage,fund substitution rate,income and expenditure and cumulative balance of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban employees in the East,Middle and West regions,as well as obvious differences among provinces within each region.Secondly,it constructs the mathematical model of the basic endowment insurance fund expenditure level of urban employees,analyzes the influencing mechanism and influencing factors affecting the fund expenditure level,and comes to the conclusion that the fund expenditure level is mainly affected by three factors: population,economy and system.This paper selects the elderly dependency ratio,education level,economic development level,average wage level,system coverage and payment substitution rate as explanatory variables to analyze the influencing factors.Based on the data of 31 provinces and cities from 2006 to 2020,this paper uses the fixed effect model to empirically analyze the impact of these factors on the expenditure level of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers in China.The results show that the old-age dependency ratio,economic development level and average wage level are positively correlated with the expenditure level of pension insurance fund,while the improvement of system coverage will inhibit the expenditure level of basic pension insurance fund.The results show that the fund expenditure level in the western region is more vulnerable to the influence of the elderly dependency ratio than in other regions.The expenditure level of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers in Central China is more vulnerable to the factors of education level.The impact of the level of economic development on the fund expenditure level in the central,Western and eastern regions shows the characteristics of descending step by step,while the impact of the average wage level on the fund expenditure level in the eastern region is significant and positive,and the impact on the central and western regions is not significant.Compared with institutional factors,the expenditure level of basic endowment insurance fund for urban employees in Central China is more vulnerable to demographic and economic factors.The eastern and western regions are affected by the payment substitution rate differently.Finally,according to the research results,in view of the increasingly serious aging problem and the increasing expenditure pressure of endowment insurance fund,this paper puts forward some opinions on the policy system,so as to ensure the sustainable development of China’s basic endowment insurance system for urban workers.The following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.Firstly,China’s retirement policy should be further improved.We can follow the example of developed countries to adopt a step-by-step way to delay the retirement age or increase the minimum payment period.At the same time,we should give consideration to fairness and efficiency.While delaying retirement and increasing the minimum payment period,we should also consider increasing the pension at retirement or providing other relevant welfare security.Secondly,we should further encourage childbirth,liberalize birth restrictions,give appropriate economic subsidies and policy preferences,such as maintenance subsidies and tax relief,and increase the allocation of personnel and facilities required for child care,education,medical treatment and so on.Strengthen the supervision of pregnancy examination in remote areas and give some subsidies.At the same time,strengthen the legal awareness of old-age insurance and improve the legal system of old-age insurance.Finally,we should develop a multi-level and multi pillar old-age security system,expand the coverage of enterprise annuity,standardize the development of the third pillar old-age insurance,and establish an individual pension system based on the account system,voluntary participation of individuals,tax support from the national finance,and market-oriented investment and operation of funds.Qualified financial products such as bank financial management,commercial endowment insurance and funds can be used as the third pillar of endowment insurance products to meet the multi-level and diversified needs of the people. |
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