Research On The Impact Of Agricultural Industrial Agglomeration On The Transfer Of Agricultural Labor Force In The North Of China

Since reform and opening up,China’s agricultural surplus labor force has experienced the gradual and incremental process of non-agricultural industrial transfer from township enterprises to small towns and then to trans-provinces,which not only promotes the reallocation of labor factor resources in the industrial structure,but also accelerates the urbanization process in China.It can be seen that the transfer of agricultural labor force has made great contributions to economic growth.However,with the aging of the working population,China’s population structure has changed.This method of relying on population growth to drive economic growth is gradually in trouble.China is gradually entering the ‘Lewis turning point’,that is,in the process of industrialization,the rural labor force continues to gather from agriculture to non-agricultural industries,resulting in the gradual reduction of rural labor force,After reaching the bottleneck until it is exhausted,it is the precursor of the disappearance of demographic dividend.In this context,agricultural industrial agglomeration can overcome the limitations of China’s small-scale peasant economy,obtain a certain scale of agricultural agglomeration,and produce economies of scale and economies of scope,Strengthening the ‘Self-hematopoietic function’ of Agriculture.However,agricultural industrial agglomeration has its own particularity.On the one hand,agricultural industrial agglomeration is based on land scale,and large-scale land transfer itself has a crowding out effect on agricultural labor force,forcing it to carry out non-agricultural transfer;on the other hand,agricultural industrial agglomeration can absorb local labor force and provide jobs through enterprise agglomeration.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify the relationship between agricultural industrial agglomeration and the transfer of agricultural labor force in northern China is of great significance to promote the large-scale operation of agriculture in northern China and optimize the allocation of agricultural labor force in China.This thesis first defines the concept of agricultural industrial agglomeration and agricultural labor transfer.It has reviewed the relevant literature and Combined with the theory of industrial location,agricultural location,dual economic theory,Xi Jinping discussion on common prosperity and other major theories.According to the analysis framework of ‘asking questions,analyzing problem and solving problems’,this thesis uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.The northern China with relatively developed agriculture and high land scale was selected as the research object.First,location entropy indicators and standardized indicators were used to calculate the agricultural industrial agglomeration degree and agricultural labor transfer amount of 15 provinces and autonomous regions in northern China from 2000 to 2020.This thesis mainly analyzes the development status of the two indexes.Second,this thesis divides agricultural industry agglomeration into two levels: farmers and enterprises.Household contracted management of cultivated land area is used to indicate the level of agricultural industry agglomeration at the farmer level.The agricultural industrial agglomeration degree is measured by location entropy so as to express the agricultural industrial agglomeration at the enterprise level.Based on the static and dynamic panel model,this thesis use fixed-effects model and SYS-GMM model.This thesis Empirically investigate the influence of agricultural industrial agglomeration on agricultural labor transfer and regional heterogeneity.Third,this thesis use the instrumental variable method to test the robustness of the empirical results.Further,this thesis has viewed the degree of agricultural mechanization as an intermediary variable so as to investigate the Mediating effect mechanism of agricultural industrial agglomeration on agricultural labor transfer.Also,this thesis has taken the proportion of agricultural state-owned economy as a Moderating variable to investigate the Moderating mechanism of state-owned economy at the enterprise level on the transfer of agricultural labor force.The empirical results show that: First,the agricultural industrial agglomeration at the level of farmers and enterprises significantly promotes the transfer of agricultural labor force in northern China,and there is regional heterogeneity.The promotion effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration at the farmer level on agricultural labor force transfer is the greatest in northeast China,the smallest one in North China.The promotion effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration at the enterprise level on agricultural labor force transfer is the greatest in North China,the smallest in the northwest.Second,agricultural industrial agglomeration promotes the transfer of agricultural labor force by indirectly affecting the level of agricultural mechanization,That is,the agricultural industry agglomeration at the level of farmer and enterprise level has some mediating effect when affecting the transfer of agricultural labor force in northern China.Third,the promoting effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration at the enterprise level on the transfer of agricultural labor force in northern China is moderated by the proportion of local state-owned economy.It shows that the state-owned economy helps to reduce the promotion effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration on agricultural labor force transfer.Fourth,industrialization and urbanization have significantly promoted the transfer of agricultural labor force.The government’s agricultural support efforts,land quality and the elderly support ratio have a significant negative impact on the transfer of agricultural labor force.The degree of opening up had no significant impact on agricultural labor transfer.There was also a significant regional heterogeneity in the above impact effects.Industrialization has significantly promoted the transfer of agricultural labor force in the four major regions.Urbanization has significantly promoted the transfer of agricultural labor force in north China and northwest China.The government supports agriculture in the Central Plains area has significantly promoted the transfer of agricultural labor force and decreased the transfer of agricultural labor force in the northeast region.Land quality promotes the transfer of agricultural labor force in Northeast China and hinders the transfer of agricultural labor force in other areas.The degree of opening to the outside world has significantly promoted the transfer of agricultural labor force in the Central Plains and has insignificant effects in other regions.Geriatric dependency ratio do not have a significant impact in the Northwest region,and have significantly hindered the transfer of agricultural labor force in other areas.Finally,this thesis puts forward relevant suggestions on optimizing agricultural industrial agglomeration and optimizing agricultural labor allocation,such as improving the efficiency of agricultural labor allocation,promoting the development of agricultural mechanization and strengthening the role of state-owned economy in agricultural production.