Research On The Coupling And Coordinated Development Of Manufacturing And Logistics In China

Under the new situation,the focus of my country’s economic growth has shifted from speed optimization to "quality development".As a pillar industry of the national economy,manufacturing plays an important role in the further development of social economy.It is important to control the cost effectively because of the manufacturing industry and the development of the industry.The further development of global trade and the continuous expansion of the scale of foreign investment have led to the expansion of business activities and resource allocation within the scope of the industry.The 2019 NPC and CPPCC government report stressed the need to strengthen the modernization of logistics,coordinated development with the regional economy,deep linkage between the two industries,harmonious development needs to further deepen the integration of the two industries.Based on the reality,with the help of statistics,econometrics,industrial other relevant industrial theories,and from the perspective of industrial development,industrial Coordination is the ultimate direction to explore the level of development of China’s manufacturing and logistics industry,the degree of coordinated development and its related factors.In this thesis,the panel data of 30 provinces in 2011-2019 are taken as the research object.Firstly,establish a comprehensive level measurement system for the manufacturing and logistics industries,and use the entropy weight method to calculate the comprehensive indicators of the industry,this thesis explores the development level of the two industries in China from the three levels of the whole,the province and the region respectively,and uses the grey relational degree model to reflect the degree of the two industries’ correlation,finally,the spatial weight Matrix is established and the global and local Molain indices are selected to understand the spatial correlation of the observed objects,in order to be able to select the most suitable model to study the statistical measurement of data,with the help of Granges test(LM test)and other test methods to determine the final space Dubin model(SDM)to study the coupling and coordinated development of China’s manufacturing and logistics industry factors and their effects.The main conclusions of the empirical study are as follows: First,the overall level of China’s manufacturing and logistics industries shows an upward trend year by year,the development level of the two industries in different regions shows the characteristics of decreasing from the coastal areas to the inland areas.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree between the manufacturing industry and the logistics industry is in the range of 0.5-0.6,which is in the transitional stage of the coupling coordination type,as a whole,the coupling coordination degree keeps increasing year by year,and gradually approaches to the preliminary coordination.At the regional level,the industrial coordination level in the eastern coastal area is the best,followed by the central area and the western area is relatively backward,the spatial Dubin model(SDM)is used to simulate the data,and the results show that physical capital,technological progress and international trade have a significant impact on the coordinated development level of China’s manufacturing and logistics industries,and the spill-over effect is the main component.Finally,based on the conclusions of the empirical study,this thesis puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)strengthen the inter-regional industrial economic exchanges,and realize the improvement of the development level of manufacturing and logistics industries;(2)promote the coordinated development of industries and realize the linkage and upgrading of manufacturing and logistics industries;(3)to adapt to the tide of big data and realize the shift of manufacturing and logistics to high-end.