Analysis And Forecast Of Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Prices In Ma’anshan City

Looking at the status quo of the balanced development of my country’s economy,the real estate industry has played an important role in it,and with the development of the economy,the real estate market has entered a prosperous period.However,the prosperity also brought a series of problems.In the context of the rapid development of my country’s real estate market,real estate prices show obvious regional differences,and the problem of high housing prices also follows.Since the state proposed "no housing speculation" in 2016,the development of the real estate market has gradually become a key trend affecting the general trend of my country’s economic development.The housing issue has always been an important livelihood issue.At present,housing is not limited to the basic attribute of living,and financial investment is also the general trend of its development.Therefore,it is particularly important to analyze the influencing factors of real estate prices and make good predictions.Give housing consumers a correct guide,and can avoid risks for investors.Ma’anshan City,which belongs to Anhui Province,is the "eastern gate" of Anhui’s eastward development.As the core city of Nanjing metropolitan area and the "cabbage heart" of the Yangtze River Delta,the particularity of Ma’anshan City’s development and location has become the basis for choosing it as the research object.This paper studies the influencing factors of real estate prices in Ma’anshan City and predicts its real estate prices,analyzes the influencing factors of real estate prices in Ma’anshan City based on theoretical and empirical analysis,and makes short-term forecasts for its future real estate prices to provide reference for the real estate market and the government.From 2010 to 2020,the real estate and residential prices in Ma’anshan have been increasing year by year.Except for a very small decline in a few years,the rest of the years have shown a clear growth trend.Judging from the housing price-to-income ratio,most of the housing price-to-income ratios in Maanshan are in the 3-6 range,and from 2019,the housing price-to-income ratio began to exceed the standard.Through domestic and foreign literature research and the analysis of the real estate housing market in Ma’anshan,the qualitative and quantitative research and analysis of the influencing factors of the real estate prices in Ma’anshan are carried out.The empirical analysis is divided into two parts: the first part is the research on the influencing factors of real estate prices in Ma’anshan City based on grey relational analysis.Completed area,land transaction unit price,year-end permanent population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,gross domestic product,loan interest rate,per capita park green space and other 24 quantitative indicators,the processed data is calculated for absolute,relative and comprehensive correlation.And the ranking of the degree of influence,establish a comprehensive evaluation system of indicators,and analyze the influencing factors of real estate prices;the second part is based on the GM(1,1)model of the real estate price forecast analysis in Ma’anshan City,selecting Ma’anshan from 2010 to 2020.The sales price of commercial housing is sample data,and the real estate price is predicted in the next five years to provide reference for the development of the real estate market in Maanshan City.From the empirical research results,it can be seen that each influencing factor has different degrees of influence on the real estate price.The top five influence factors are the unit price of land transaction,the resident population at the end of the year,the interest rate,the proportion of the tertiary industry and the proportion of the industry.It can be seen that the regulation of real estate prices in Maanshan City can comprehensively consider the unit price of land transactions,the permanent resident population at the end of the year,the interest rate,the proportion of the tertiary industry and the proportion of industry,and stabilize the healthy development of the real estate market through factors that affect important factors.Judging from the forecast of real estate prices,the forecast values of real estate prices in Maanshan City from 2021 to 2025 are 8211.84 yuan /square meter,8974.92 yuan / square meter,9808.23 yuan / square meter,10720.38 yuan / square meter,11716.56 yuan / square meter Meter.In the next five years,the real estate price in Ma’anshan City will increase from 8,211.84 yuan/square meter in 2021 to 11,716.56 yuan/square meter in 2025.The overall increase is expected to reach 42.68%.The government,real estate developers and consumers also need to be aware of future real estate prices.respond to fluctuations.Finally,based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the real estate market in Ma’anshan City from the aspects of the top-ranked factors,improving the land supply and demand mechanism,reasonably guiding consumers’ housing needs,implementing differentiated credit policies,optimizing the industrial structure,maintaining Healthy and steady economic growth.