Research On Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Tourism Development In Shaanxi Province

Shaanxi Shaanxi Province is a major tourist province in my country.It has rich cultural tourism resources and has unique advantages in the development of natural landscape tourism,historical culture and red tourism.Since the 21 st century,the country has successively proposed the Western Development Strategy and the "One Belt,One Road" initiative.The proposal and implementation of these policies have brought new opportunities and challenges to the economic development of Shaanxi Province,and also promoted the rapid development of Shaanxi’s tourism industry.The number of tourists and tourism income have also increased rapidly.Therefore,studying the factors that affect the development of tourism in Shaanxi Province not only has important theoretical and practical significance for the economic development and economic structure adjustment of Shaanxi Province,but can also promote the implementation of my country’s "One Belt,One Road" initiative to a certain extent.Therefore,based on the definition and theory of tourism industry,this article elaborates on the development of tourism in Shaanxi Province from three aspects: the basic situation of tourism development,the situation of inbound tourism market and the situation of domestic tourism market.The fourth chapter builds an indicator system that affects Shaanxi’s inbound tourism revenue on this basis,and then uses gray correlation analysis to study the factors that affect Shaanxi’s inbound tourism revenue.The results show that the tourism environment,economic factors,and tourism accommodation and catering are the factors that affect Shaanxi’s inbound tourism revenue.The main factors of provincial inbound tourism income;using principal component regression to study the factors that affect Shaanxi’s domestic tourism income,it is found that the comprehensive production capacity of urban water supply,urban central heating area and Internet broadband user coverage are the main factors affecting Shaanxi’s domestic tourism income factor.Then use the tourism background trend line and the gray forecast model to predict the inbound tourism income and the number of inbound tourists,domestic tourism income and the number of domestic tourists in Shaanxi Province.Through the comparison of the models,it is found that the error of the gray forecast model is smaller.Finally,based on the results of the empirical analysis,combined with the current development of Shaanxi’s tourism industry,we put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of Shaanxi’s tourism industry from different aspects.