Research On The Influence Of Housing Condition On Fertility Intention

In recent decades,due to the implementation of the one-child policy,effectively curb the excessive growth of population in our country,but the implementation of the policy also brings the new population problems of our country,according to census data for the seventh time,China’s total fertility rate is 1.3,is still in a low level,low birthrate has become a major hidden dangers in the development of the society in China.In order to improve the fertility rate,China has implemented the policy of "two-child policy" and the policy of "three-child policy".Although the fertility policy has changed from restriction to encouragement,it can not timely and effectively reverse the situation of insufficient family planning function in China.The low fertility rate is affected by many factors such as fertility concept and economic conditions.However,due to the rapid development of socialist market in recent years,the continuous improvement of urbanization management level and the rising housing price,the impact of housing on fertility is more and more significant.This paper will try to discuss the impact of residential housing on fertility intention from a micro perspective.Housing conditions including housing area,number of property,the geographical position,and from many aspects,such as life convenience due to restrictions,due to limitations in data collection and other aspects,this paper only consider may cause great influence in the fertility intentions of area and the property of two aspects were analyzed,and the residential factors can be divided into the number of houses in the housing area factor and the factor,The fertility intention of residents was subdivided into ideal number of children,time of first birth and gender preference of children to study the impact of residents’ housing area and housing number on fertility intention.Based on the data of 2013,2015 and2017 China General Social Survey,Poisson regression model is used to analyze the impact of residential housing on the number of ideal children.Multiple tail-breaking regression model was used to analyze the influence of residential housing on the time of first birth.Multinomial Logit model was used to analyze the influence of housing on children’s gender preference.In the aspect of theoretical analysis,mainly based on the new family economics,it analyzes the crowding out effect and wealth effect of housing on fertility.Through empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn :(1)the number of real estate has a significant impact on the time of first birth and gender preference of children,but has no significant impact on the number of ideal children.Specifically,with the increase of the number of real estate,the younger the age of first birth of residents,the more residents prefer to have both children.(2)Housing area has significant influence on ideal number of children,age of first birth and gender preference of children.Specifically,the larger the housing area,the more ideal number of children,the younger the age of the first birth,and at the same time,the more suppression of girl preference to promote the preference for both children.In a large number of empirical data analysis,based on the results from these specific policy Suggestions are given in this paper,first of all,the government should play the role of housing regulation,strict control of the excessive growth of house prices,to safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market,cancel the equally Shared area and improve the housing model,reduce the housing pressure will have fertility of young groups,housing security for their children.Government will also develop the housing rental market,at the same time,tries to build up the government macroeconomic regulation and control of house lease,guarantee the rental price is reasonable,and rental housing is sufficient and reliable,at all levels effectively alleviate residents housing problem,with minor children and families that could satisfy the requirement of local housing guarantee,in house door model selection should be given proper care.Finally,the real estate tax should be implemented,and the tax system should be adjusted appropriately to curb the demand for housing speculation,so that residents with multiple houses without the intention of bearing children should be taxed more,residents with fewer houses with the intention of bearing children should be taxed less,and residents without houses should not be taxed at all,so as to minimize the purchase cost of residents with the intention of bearing children but without houses.