Prediction Of The Number Of New Customers For B2C Sites

As an emerging industry, B2C business process management system is complex, involving large-scale users, and data analysis play an important role. Therefore, meticulous management based on data analysis is very concerned in B2C industry.Data analysis play an important roal in B2C industry, because of its big data and large-scale users. As one of the applications, the market sector of B2C is very concerned about the number of new customers because new customers is on behalf of the strength of the web site promotion and the potential of the business. However, the prediction of new customers is very difficult.This article based on Dangdang’s actual data, discussed the new number of passengers forecast. Through the establishment of the VAR model, the system validates the impact of factors affect the number of new customers for B2C website and quantitative analysis of the dynamic mechanism between the various channels the number of new customers and promotion expenses, and finally using the estimated econometric model the number of new customers of the various channels predictive analysis.Through the forecast, the prediction error control in less than10%. It can be concluded, the VAR model is suitable for B2C sites new customer number forecast.