Supply Chain Network Resilience Under The Disruption Risk Propagation Scenario

Today’s dynamic and complex market environment has increased the uncertainty of supply chain management,which greatly increases the possibility of supply chain disruption.At the same time,due to the complexity and interconnection of modern supply chain,the sudden disruption of several companies in a supply chain network can extend to neighboring companies and cause ripple effects(disruption risk propagation)to occur.This phenomenon has aroused scholar’s attention to the supply chain network resilience.From the network perspective,the current research context on supply chain network resilience mainly considers the short-term negative impact of disruption risk on the supply chain network,while ignoring the continuous long-term negative impact of the disruption risk on the supply chain network caused by the spread of the disruption risk in the network.In the context of disruption risk propagation,how to design a resilient supply chain network is the focus of attention and a difficult problem faced by enterprises.In order to establish a resilient supply chain to reduce the negative impact of supply chain disruption.This paper integrates the classic infectious disease SIR model,social network analysis and simulation methods to put forward a methodology for the analysis of resilient supply chain network topology in the context of disruption risk propagation,and uses the public supply chain network data set provided by Sean P.Willems(2008)to conduct a case study.First,determine the topological structure characteristics that affect the supply chain network resilience;then divide the conceptual dimension of the supply chain network resilience into network robustness and recovery ability,and quantify the supply chain network resilience through the measurement of it’s conceptual dimension,model the supply chain disruption risk propagation based on the classic infectious disease SIR model;finally,under different disruption risk propagation scenarios,simulation experiments are carried out to determine the key network topology characteristics that affect the supply chain network resilience.The research found that:(1)The risk capability of an enterprise is crucial to the supply chain network resilience.The recovery ability of enterprise risk capabilities has a significant positive effect on improving the supply chain networks resilience,reflecting the importance of appropriate organizational slack in ensuring the continuity of enterprise operations;(2)Network average degree and network degree centrality are key network topology characteristics,But they have different effects on different dimensions of supply chain network resilience.The network degree centrality has a positive effect on the long-term recovery ability of the supply chain network resilience.The average degree of the network has a positive effect on the short-term robustness of the supply chain network resilience,but has a negative effect on the long-term recovery ability,indicating that tradeoffs exist between the robustness of the network against a disruption and its ability to recover from that disruption.