Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Prices In Beijing Based On VAR Model

The real estate is one of the most important industries to promote economie development and stimulate employment in China.The high house price has curbed the demands of house purchase and seriously affected the desire of age-appropriate youth for marriage and childbirth,which has brought serious social problems.By studying the influencing factors of real estate prices can help the government making policy to maintain the stability of house prices,which is conducive to economic development and social stability.Firstly,this paper discusses the relevant concepts,development process and industry characteristics of the real estate industry,and analyzes the main factors affecting the change of real estate prices from the aspects of geographical location,environmental factors,economic factors and policy factors.Secondly,this paper describes the general situation of Beijing’s real estate market and compares the differences of house price among the 16 districts in Beijing as well as the differences among Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen.Different from other scholars only analyze from the economic perspective,this paper considers both economic factors and policy factors to construct VAR model.Then comes to the conclusion that,the impact of land supply area and loan interest rate on house price fluctuates greatly,and the contribution of loan interest rate is much higher.The supply of money and the saleable area of housing are also the main factors affecting the change of house prices,which reflects the impact of the demand side and supply side on the fluctuation of house prices.In view of the unbalanced development of house prices from different districts and which would affected by supplying,demanding,economic factors and policy factors,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.