| In recent years,the development of China’s hog industry is facing severe challenges.The sharp fluctuation of hog prices has greatly damaged the interests of pig farmers and consumers.As the weak side,hog farmers bear greater price risk.In this context,this paper focuses on the following questions:what are the characteristics and influencing factors of hog price fluctuation?How do hog price fluctuations pass risks along the industrial chain?Can large-scale breeding stabilize the fluctuation of hog prices?Firstly,the explicit and implicit characteristics of hog price fluctuation are investigated by decomposition method and GARCH model.The results show that from the perspective of dominant characteristics,the fluctuation of hog price has obvious characteristics of seasonality,trend periodicity and irregularity.From the perspective of recessive characteristics,on the one hand,the price fluctuation of hogs has significant clustering,and the price shock takes a long time to disappear,so the price fluctuation of hogs can be predicted;On the other hand,the fluctuation of hog price does not have the characteristics of high risk and high return,and there is no significant asymmetry.In addition,the fluctuation of hog price will be affected by the price fluctuation of hog price in lag period and breeding cost.Secondly,the volatility transmission between hog and pork price is studied by vector autoregressive(VAR)model.The results show that:in the transmission direction,there is only one-way Granger reason from upstream hog price fluctuation to downstream pork price fluctuation;In terms of transmission range,the impact of hog price fluctuation on pork price fluctuation is more severe and the recovery time is longer,that is,there is an obvious risk persistence between the two;The threshold VAR model is used to test the price fluctuation transmission under different risk conditions.The results show that under the condition of highrisk market,the risk transmission characteristics of hog and pork market are more obvious,and the way of transferring price risk to consumers is more prominent.Finally,based on the perspective of large-scale breeding,this paper studies the ways to stabilize the price fluctuation of hogs.This paper finds that large-scale breeding is indeed an effective means to suppress the price fluctuation of hogs,and medium-sized breeding contributes the most to stabilizing the price fluctuation of hogs,followed by large-scale breeding,and small-scale breeding has the least stabilizing effect.At the same time,by comparing the results of the overall sample and the intercepted sub sample,it is found that the environmental protection policy of "eager for quick success and instant benefit" does damage the stabilizing effect of large-scale breeding on the fluctuation of hog prices.Based on practical problems,this paper studies the characteristics of hog price fluctuation in China,the fluctuation transmission relationship between hog and pork price,and the role of large-scale breeding in stabilizing hog price fluctuation in China.According to the conclusions of this empirical study,policy suggestions are put forward:first,establish and improve the information monitoring mechanism of hogs and related markets,and strengthen the early warning mechanism;Secondly,we should improve the risk prevention mechanism to protect the vital interests of farmers;Finally,we should encourage appropriate scale breeding and promote green ecological breeding step by step. |
