| In most of China’s cities,public bus is the mainly public transport tool.Recently,by the improvement on the construction of subway,light rail and other kinds of rail transit,more and more cities start their own public rail transit as a new way on public transport.These brand-new rail transit makes a great shock on the traditional public transport system.It becomes a difficult problem for everyone on how to understand the influence of rail transit on public bus.This paper studies just about the influence of rail transit on the public bus.By using difference-in-differences model,on the base of the passengers’ data of public bus,it studies the influence of the subway’s opening on the passenger volume of public bus.Also,it summarizes the results of the model and makes some suggestions.Firstly,on the study of the background,it analyzes the advantage and disadvantage of different kinds of public transport tools,and takes public bus and subway’s distribution situation as key point.By investigation,study and comparison on the present different kinds of public transport tools,the public bus and rail transit are found to be the mainly public transport tool.What’s more,these two kinds of public transport tools both have their own advantages,and would be taken by government in a long time.Furthermore,on the base of the distribution of public bus and subway,it collects the relevant data and makes a good us of them.Taking the window period after the opening of subway line 1 and before the opening of subway line 2 as a chance,it makes a fully investigation on the passenger’s volume on each public bus line.By doing this,it could analyze the influence of the opening of subway on public bus.Secondly,on the study of data analyzation,according to the distance between public bus lines and subway rails,all public bus lines could be divided into cross lines(the origin and destination stations are not in the services area of subway,but cross the subway lines),parallel lines(the origin and destination stations are both in the service area of subway,or over 50%line distance is in the service area of subway)and unrelated lines(the origin and destination stations are not in the services area of subway,and have no cross with subways).To form the panel data which would be used in difference-in-differences model,it collects the public bus passenger volume which belongs to the 5 months before and after the opening of subway month by month.Then it becomes a panel data table,which contains line name,line type,time and passenger volume.The influence of the opening of subway on public bus is calculated in difference-in-differences model on the panel data in monthly unit and weekly unit.Besides,the influence in holiday and workday is also calculated to identify the effect of the opening of subway transit to public bus passenger.By the calculation on different kinds of public bus lines using difference-in-differences model,the passenger volume on parallel lines are significantly influenced by the opening of subway,no matter in the unit of month or week,which falls by 5.5%in average.On the cross lines,the passenger volume rises about 4.5%in average.The same results appear in the analyzation on the passenger volume in holiday and workday,which means the opening of subway caused the reduction of the passenger volume in parallel lines and increase of the passenger volume in cross lines.On the data result of the difference-in-differences model,this paper makes the suggestions on the public bus lines adjustment after the opening of subway,which is to reduce the parallel lines or cut some shifts on parallel lines and to increase the cross lines or add shifts on cross lines.The conclusion could be used for reference to other cities which are about to start subway on the adjustment of public buses. |
