The Research Of The Chen-Mian-Le Transport Corridor Passenger Volume Forecasting Models

Transport corridor play an important part in the whole comprehensive transport net,but controlled a transportation volume is an important premise of the research transport corridor.This has an important reference value to forwarding network,transportation capacity layout and transportation policy.The paper summarized the present research of passenger volume of transportation corridor,and analyzed the influence factor of the chen-mian-le corridor with grey relation anlysis.On the base of analyzing in common use passenger transportation volume of the chen-mian-le transportation corridor predict model,the paper respectively make use of the regression,BP neural networks,index numbers and grey model to predict the total passenger volume of the corridor.At last,it use the combination forecasting model to put together the four methods and constitute a whole.The main content is as follows:(1)In chapter 1,an introduction part,proceeds the analysis and induce to the research present condition of the latest corridor passage theories in details, introduce the currently common use corridor passage predict method.(2)In chapter2,introduce the basic situationg of the chen-mian-le corridor and the fornt prepare to work,including the individe the OD,acquired the OD form of basic year and so on.(3)In chapter3,anlyaized the influence factor of passenger volume and used the grey relation analysis to anlyaize these factor(becase the limited of the collect data,so the paper only anlysis the GDP and population volume),and aquired the GDP and population volume influence that passenger volume greatly. It is reasonable to put it to the importation of the transportation passenger volume predict system.(4)In chapter4,use the cause and effect relation method(liner regression and BP neural networks)to precidct the passenger volume of the chen-mian-le transportation corridor.(5)In chapter5,use the time sequence method(index number and grey model) to predict the volume of the chen-mian-le transportation corridor.(6)In chapter 6,make use of superior combination model to process the four predice results,then distribute the passenger volume and predict the increase volume and share volume.at last analyzed the results. In short,this paper has carried out some research work for the passenger volume of transportation corridor.it has significant leading meaning to solve practice problem of passageway.