Research On Intervention Model Of Online Rumor Propagation Based On Uncertainty Theory

With the development and popularity of the Internet,a large number of self-media platforms and users have emerged,leading to an increasingly wide audience involved in online rumors,and the power of the supervisory department alone is not enough to effectively manage online rumors;at the same time,the continuous development of modern media technology has made the form of online rumors diversified,making it more difficult to identify and supervise online rumors.Therefore,it is the inevitable trend of online rumor management at this stage to change the idea of online rumor management from multi-headed management to coordinated management,from post-management to process management,and to realize the forward shift of online rumor management.This requires supervisory departments to adopt a reasonable reward and punishment system,choose a reasonable intervention time and intensity,and adjust the intervention strategy according to the actual situation,so as to better coordinate and manage online rumors and achieve a better effect of online rumor management.Based on uncertainty theory,this thesis applies the uncertain multi-objective programming model to the field of optimizing the effect of online rumor management,considers the attributes and characteristics of different types of online rumors,the response attitudes of self-media and netizens,and the reward and punishment mechanisms of regulators for self-media and netizens,and establishes a model for the timing and intensity of intervention in online rumor propagation,and verifies through comparative experiments.This thesis aims to provide a theoretical basis for regulators to effectively carry out collaborative and process management of online rumors,and to flexibly adjust management strategies according to the actual situation.The main research contents of this thesis are as follows.First,a single-subject model of intervention timing for online rumor propagation is constructed to analyze how to reasonably make decisions on the timing of intervention for different types of online rumors when governed by regulatory authorities only.With the expected value of minimizing the spread rate and intervention cost of online rumors as the objective function,realistic factors such as the attention of online rumors and the length of release,as well as their effects on the spread rate and intervention cost of online rumors are considered,and constraints such as cost and spread rate thresholds are added to the mod el to analyze the intervention timing choices of regulators under different circumstances,considering their focus on the effectiveness and cost of governance.To enable decision makers such as regulators to better apply the model in practice.Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the experimental results given different weights and different thresholds to verify the reasonableness and effectiveness of the model and algorithm.Secondly,a model of intervention timing of online rumor propagation wit h the participation of multiple subjects is constructed to analyze how the regulator can reasonably choose the intervention timing when the self-media and netizens are involved.Still taking the expected value of minimizing the rate of online rumor propagation and intervention cost as the objective function,on the basis of the single-subject online rumor propagation intervention timing model,adding the response attitudes of the self-media and netizens,the coordination and cooperation mechanism between the regulator and the self-media and netizens,that is,the incentive mechanism chosen by the regulator for the participation attitudes of both,and other realistic constraints,and numerical experiments are conducted to enable decision makers such as the regulator to better apply the model in practice,and the experimental results are compared and analyzed with the experimental results of the single-subject online rumor propagation intervention timing model to verify the validity of the model while elaborating the importance of coordinated governance among self-media,netizens and regulators to enhance the effectiveness of online rumor management.Finally,an intervention intensity model of online rumor spreading is constructed to analyze how the regulator chooses a reasonable intervention intensity under the corresponding intervention timing for single-subject and multi-subject participation,respectively.Considering the realistic factors such as the punishment mechanism of the regulator and the effectiveness of punishment(the proportion of disseminators who stop spreading after being punished),and taking the expectation value of minimizing the proportion of remaining disseminators and the intervention cost as the objective function,realistic constraints such as the degree of concern of online rumors,the punishment mechanism and the effectiveness of punishment are added to the model to analyze their intervention intensity under the corresponding intervention timing.To enable decision makers such as regulators to better apply the model in practice,numerical experiments are conducted,and the results of the two experiments are compared and analyzed to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model and algorithm,and to further demonstrate the enhanced effect of self-media and Internet users’ participation on the effectiveness of Internet rumor management.This thesis innovatively applies uncertainty planning models to the study of optimizing the effect of online rumor governance.Considering the real situation in online rumor governance,we construct a model of intervention timing and intervention intensity of online rumor propagation considering single and multiple subjects,and quantitatively analyze the importance of collaborative governance by self-media,netizens and regulators to enhance the effectiveness of online rumor governance,which has certain implications for regulators to effectively carry out collaborative and process governance of online rumors and flexibly adjust governance strategies according to the actual situation It has some implications for regulators to effectively carry out collaborative and process governance of online rumors and flexibly adjust their governance strategies according to actual situations.