| Since the reform and opening up,the nearly unlimited supply of agricultural transfer population has become the core driving force for the rapid development of urban and national economy.However,after entering the 21 st century,with the continuous transformation of the population structure,the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared,the labor supply is insufficient,and the problem of "labor shortage" in enterprises has repeatedly appeared.In addition,the rapid development of the economy,the rising minimum wage standard and the rising cost of living,these factors have promoted the continuous rise of labor wages,and thus increased the cost of employment of enterprises.At present,China has become the largest industrial robot market in the world.The number of robots and their growth rate are the highest in the world.In order to cope with the pressure of rising labor costs,seek production advantages,hedge the difficulties of "recruitment difficulties" and "labor shortage",and avoid exit risks,enterprises will use intelligent machines to replace those repetitive,regular and dangerous jobs,These jobs were previously carried out by the agricultural transfer population with low skill level,which triggered a new round of social anxiety about large-scale machine replacement and labor unemployment,especially the agricultural transfer population with relatively low skill level is expected to be more likely to fall into employment difficulties.Starting from the basic facts of the rapid growth of the wages of the agricultural transfer population,this paper analyzes the occurrence mechanism and employment impact of intelligent technology replacing artificial labor by using the dynamic monitoring survey data of the national floating population,the statistical yearbook data of provinces,the EPS database and the robot trade data of China’s various industries in the IFR research report World Robotics 2019.The result shows that the wage growth determined by non-supply and demand factors has promoted the substitution of intelligent technology for artificial labor in the industrial sector.As a result,a large number of agricultural transfer population has been forced to flow into the service industry with relatively low skill level,which is difficult to be replaced,leading to the polarization of employment of agricultural transfer population.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the development of intelligent technology and market-oriented reform provide favorable conditions for intelligent substitution,and improving labor productivity is an effective way to mitigate the impact of intelligent technology.Therefore,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the result of employment polarization caused by intelligent technology replacing agricultural transfer population.Strengthening vocational training adapted to intelligent technology,improving the efficiency of labor resource allocation,improving the social security system and broadening employment channels are conducive to maintaining employment and social stability during economic transformation and upgrading,and allowing more workers to share the dividends of intelligent technology. |
