The Impact Of Demographic Change On Household Consumption

The level of household consumption refers to the extent to which the material and cultural needs of households and their members are actually met.The upgrading of household consumption structure refers to the increase in the structure of medium and high level consumption of households,i.e.,the increase in the proportion of enjoyment and developmental consumption in total household consumption.At this stage when consumption is gradually overtaking investment as the main driver of domestic demand in China,"consumption structure upgrading" has become an important issue of concern for Chinese society and academia.The population and its changing determinants play a key role in the expansion and restructuring of consumption,and people’s production and consumption patterns vary greatly at different stages of their life cycle.Since 2013,the government has identified the expansion of domestic demand as one of the main drivers of economic activity,household consumption has become a key driver of sustainable growth,and household demographics are a key factor influencing household consumption behavior.China’s demographic structure has undergone significant changes over the past 40 years or so due to the implementation of the one-child policy.The twin changes of China’s aging population and the "two-child policy" are causing profound economic and social adjustments and changes.In recent years,China’s population has been characterized by a "low birth rate","low natural growth rate" and "low mortality rate",an increasingly aging population,rising education levels and accelerating urbanization.As a key driver of sustainable economic growth,it is important to study the link between household consumption level,consumption structure upgrade and household demographic composition.Demographic structure is divided into natural,social and geographical structures.Many domestic and foreign experts have analyzed the link between population and household consumption from three macro perspectives: natural structure,social structure and geographical structure of population,but few have conducted in-depth studies from micro perspectives.In order to promote the development and improvement of research theories on household demographic structure in China,increase household consumption and promote the upgrading of household consumption structure by adjusting household demographic structure,so as to promote the expansion and structural adjustment of consumption in China,this paper will analyze comprehensively and systematically how the demographic structure of residential households affects the level of residential consumption and thus promotes the upgrading of residential consumption structure from a micro perspective by constructing a least squares dummy variable(LSDV)model based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018,and carefully analyze the The relationship between household demographic structure and different levels of household consumption upgrading is analyzed in detail with the help of cross-sectional quantile regression panel data model.After a series of model empirical analysis,this paper draws the following four conclusions: First,the increase in the proportion of children and the proportion of elderly people is not conducive to improving household consumption.The increase in the proportion of children will inhibit the upgrading of household consumption structure;the increase in the proportion of elderly will promote the upgrading of household consumption structure,but the degree of impact is weak.Second,the improvement of education structure can raise the level of household consumption.The increase of the share of secondary education can not promote the upgrading of household consumption structure,but the larger the share of higher education in households,the more it can promote the upgrading of household consumption.Third,the improvement of urban-rural structure can raise household consumption level,but there is no promotion effect on the upgrading of household consumption structure.Fourth,there are different degrees of heterogeneity in household consumption levels and consumption structure upgrading in the three regions of East,West and Central Asia,which are affected by demographic changes.In response to these findings,this paper makes the following recommendations: First,families responding to the "second" and "third" childbirth policies should be given appropriate "relief" policies.Second,the focus should be on raising the consumption level of aging families and sharing the burden of old age at the institutional level through a reliable social pension system.Third,increase investment in education,invest more in education in remote areas,promote economic growth from the perspective of promoting consumption,promote the improvement of household consumption structure and thus promote the upgrading of social industrial structure,and deepen supply-side reform.Fourth,break down the institutional barriers of urban-rural and regional division,make changes in the urban-rural structure a key entry point in industrial restructuring and public resource allocation planning,and focus inclusive policies on rural and central and western regions to narrow urban-rural and regional disparities.