The Effect Of Skill Mismatch On The Propensity To Leave Among University Graduates

In recent years,with the slowdown of China’s economic growth,the continuous expansion of the scale of higher education and the outstanding structural contradictions in the labour market,the current employment situation of college graduates is very serious.The specific manifestations are the accentuation of the skill mismatch problem of graduates,the intensification of employment instability and the low quality of employment in general,and whether the skill mismatch problem is an influencing factor of the employment instability of college graduates needs to be further explored.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between skill mismatch and the propensity to leave the university.It not only enriches the knowledge of labour economics and education economics in the field of human capital allocation,but also helps to promote the career development of college graduates,improve the labour productivity of enterprises and optimise relevant government decisions.Based on the theory of human-job matching,this paper uses literature research method,questionnaire survey and statistical analysis to collect relevant information from the employment reality of college graduates,and constructs an initial model of college graduates’ propensity to leave,and uses regression analysis to test the research hypothesis after obtaining data to obtain a fitted model of graduates’ propensity to leave.The model was used to find out the mechanism of the effect of skill mismatch on job satisfaction and propensity to leave.The results showed that: firstly,the incidence of skill mismatch among college graduates was 39.9%,of which 29.09% were over-skilled and 10.81% were underskilled;secondly,under-skilling or over-skilling of college graduates had a significant negative impact on job satisfaction;thirdly,over-skilling had a significant positive impact on the propensity to leave,but the relationship between under-skilling and the propensity to leave was not significant.Thirdly,graduates’ job satisfaction partially moderated the effect of over-skilling on the propensity to leave.Fourthly,this paper also tests the finding that job satisfaction has a negative effect on the propensity to leave.Finally,this study concludes that skill overload can effectively predict the job satisfaction and turnover propensity of college graduates.According to the findings of the study,the following insights are brought to improve the employment quality of college graduates: universities should optimize the setting of majors and reasonably plan the scale of enrollment in the future to avoid over-skill cultivation;enterprises should establish a scientific human resource management system to promote job matching;college graduates should pay attention to the cultivation of personal comprehensive ability to improve skill matching ability;and multiple parties should collaborate to establish a long-term mechanism for highquality skill matching.