Spatial Differentiation Of Birth Rate In China And Analysis Of Influencing Factors

China has transitioned from a high-birth-rate country to a low-birth-rate country.In response to the continuing low birth rate and the imbalance in the age structure of the population,China has implemented the "separate two-child","comprehensive two-child" and In response to the continuing low birth rate and the imbalance in the age structure of the population,China has implemented the "separate two-child","comprehensive two-child" and "comprehensive three-child" policies.In this context,scholars have gradually conducted more studies on the birth rate of the population.However,Because China is such a large country,regional divisions have emerged as one of the most major national issues.There are clear geographical disparities in the variables that influence the birth rate,the consequences of fertility regulations,and the attitudes of society members toward reproduction.Firstly,according to the birth rates of various provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,this paper analyzes the regional differences of birth rates in China and their changing rules,in order to explore the spatial changes of birth rates and its influencing factors,and draws a conclusion that the spatial pattern of birth rates in China is gradually decreasing from west to east,changing into a spatial unbalanced trend of decreasing from the west and south China to the northeast,and the regional differences of birth rates are the main sources of the overall differences.The birth rate difference between Northeast China and other three regions is increasing with time,while the birth rate difference between East China and West China,East China and Central China,and West China and Central China shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.Secondly,the spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors of China’s birth rate based on the macro data of statistical yearbook and the analysis of the influencing factors of the differences between husband and wife within the family on the actual birth rate of the family based on the micro data of CGSS are carried out respectively,and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)From the estimation results of dynamic spatial panel model,it can be seen that the birth rate has significant spatial dependence.(2)In the short term,the birth rate has a significant positive correlation with per capita GDP,house price income ratio,maternity insurance coverage,the urban registered unemployment rate,child dependency ratio,residents’ education expenditure,per capita years of education,the difference between men and women’s education and maternity policy,and a significant negative correlation with medical insurance coverage,endowment insurance coverage,urbanization rate and elderly dependency ratio,and per capita GDP,house price income ratio,maternity insurance coverage,the urban registered unemployment rate,children’s dependency ratio,residents’ education expenditure,per capita years of education,the difference between men and women’s education and fertility policy have significant positive spillover effects,while the medical insurance coverage,endowment insurance coverage,urbanization rate and elderly dependency ratio have negative spillover effects,while the spillover effect of per capita years of education on population birth rate shows an inverted "U" curve;(3)In the long run,the birth rate has a significant negative correlation with per capita GDP,house price income ratio,maternity insurance coverage,urban registered unemployment rate,child dependency ratio,residents’ education expenditure,per capita years of education,differences in education between men and women and maternity policies,and a significant positive correlation with medical insurance coverage,endowment insurance coverage,urbanization rate and elderly dependency ratio.It is worth mentioning that,the total effect of per capita years of education on the birth rate is positively "U" shaped;(4)Within the family,the increase of male and female education level and income will make families more inclined to have one child,while the increase of family size will make families have more children.However,Han families,urban families and families in Northeast China are more inclined to have one child.Therefore,it is suggested that :(1)the government should take regional differences into full consideration when making fertility policies;(2)The government should properly control housing prices;(3)In terms of social insurance,we should not only reduce the threshold of social insurance,but also optimize its internal structure to improve the coverage rate of social insurance;(4)Pay attention to the coordinated development of urbanization process and employment environment;(5)Reasonably cultivate interest to control the cost of education;(6)Respecting women’s rights.Set up the correct view of marriage and love and childbearing in order to respect female childbearing choice;The education level of women should be improved and the working treatment should be improved to alleviate the role conflict between women in family and career.