Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure On China’s Global Value Chain Position

For a long time,under the guidance of the export-oriented strategy,China has relied on the "demographic dividend" and embedded in the global value chain division system dominated by developed countries by virtue of its labor cost advantage,winning the reputation of "the world’s factory".However,with the changes in the age structure of China’s population,the aging population declining birthrate are gradually deepening,and the ratio of labor force to population is also declining year by year.The road to achieve rapid expansion of scale through "low-end embedded" global value chains has become unsustainable.China’s industry is entering an important window period for transformation and upgrading to enhance the position of the global value chain.The country also timely proposed to cultivate new advantages for China to participate in international cooperation and competition under the new situation,and to enhance China’s position in the global industrial chain and innovation chain.Therefore,how to adapt to the trend of population age structure changes and improve China’s global value chain position is a problem of research significance at present.In order to study the impact of population age structure on China’s global value chain position,this paper first analyzes the academic literature on population age structure and global value chains.Secondly,the change trend of China’s population age structure from 1960 to 2020 is analyzed from the three dimensions of child raised ratio,labor force population ratio and elderly support ratio.At the same time,according to the latest organization for economic cooperation and development(OECD)database,the changing trend of China’s global value chain position from 1995 to 2018 is analyzed.After having a certain grasp of the population age structure and the position of the global value chain at the theoretical level,in order to further study the impact of the population age structure on China’s global value chain position,the relevant data from1995 to 2018 were used to construct a time series model,and the impact of the population age structure on China’s global value chain position is empirically tested.The analysis found that China’s population age structure is characterized by the coexistence of low birthrate and aging population as a whole,and the labor force population is gradually decreasing;the overall change trend of China’s global value chain position presents a "V" shape that first declines and then rises.The empirical results show that during the sample observation period,the increase of the child raised ratio and the elderly support ratio will increase the dependency burden of the labor force and crowd out the investment of social innovation resources,so the increase of the child raised ratio and the elderly support ratio will inhibit more than promote the China’s global value chain.position However,the increase of the labor-to-population ratio can not only reduce the burden of support,but also better promote technological innovation,so the increase of the labor-to-population ratio during the sample observation period has a greater promoting effect than the inhibiting effect on the improvement of China’s global value chain positionAlthough the increase of the child raised ratio will increase the support burden of the labor force in a short period of time,in the long run,the continuous decline of the child raised ratio is not conducive to the replenishment of the labor force,but will also increase the elderly support ratio,thus entering a vicious circulation.Therefore,in order to resolve the negative impact of the population age structure problem on the promotion of China’s global value chain position,we must first increase the birthrate and improve the supporting reproductive system;secondly,we must vigorously develop age value-added industries;once again,we must optimize China’s commodity import and export structure;in addition,we must promote independent innovation and increase the value-added of Chinese-made products;finally,we must build an industrial transformation and upgrading mechanism based on the national value chain.