| There are certain differences in the consumption habits and consumption abilities of people of different age groups,so changes in the population’s age structure will have a significant impact on residents’ consumption.At present,the age structure of China’s population has entered a period of rapid transformation,and the problems of aging and declining births have become a prominent feature of China’s social development.Man-made policy intervention has accelerated the transformation of our country ’s population age structure,and it has only taken more than 20 years to change from a young type to an old type.Unlike the aging of developed countries such as Europe,America,and Japan that "get rich first and then get old",China’s aging is "before getting rich before getting old".Under this background,this paper uses panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2003 to 2018,and uses empirical research to analyze the impact of population age structure changes on residents’ consumption.This article first sorts out the relevant literature on the impact of population age structure changes on residents’ consumption,and summarizes the current main research results.Then define the connotation of residents’ consumption rate and consumption structure,and construct the consumption structure index based on ELES model.Next,the theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism of population age structure on consumption.Finally,the dynamic panel GMM estimation method was used to study the effects of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio on the residents’ consumption rate and consumption structure.The results show that the decrease in the dependency ratio for children and the increase in the dependency ratio for the elderly have suppressed the increase in household consumption rates,and partially offset the positive impact of supply-side structural reforms on the upgrading of the consumption structure.Based on the empirical results,this article proposes the following three suggestions: First,adjust the supply structure and production structure according to the changing trend of the age structure of the population,reduce the invalid supply,and expand the effective supply;Second,continue to promote the comprehensive two-child policy,encourage births,and reduce The family’s childbearing costs are changing from a low birth rate to a moderate birth rate.Finally,a reasonable redistribution policy is formulated to reduce the income gap. |
