Population Structure And Housing Prices

Since 2001,China’s housing prices have grown rapidly,and the contribution of the real estate industry to GDP has been increasing and has become a pillar industry of the national economy.However,the long-term trend of fertility decline and population aging will change China’s population structure,have a significant impact on the real estate industry,and thus have a huge impact on the sustainable development of the economy.Based on this background,this paper selects China’s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020 to make an empirical study on the impact of demographic changes on housing prices.This paper summarizes the evolution characteristics of China’s population structure and housing prices since the 21st century,puts forward the research hypothesis of population structure affecting housing prices according to economic theory,and uses panel data to establish econometric models to verify and analyze the proposed hypothesis.This paper also tests the robustness of the model from the dimensions of time,region and Service vitality level.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on the regulation of the real estate industry in the period of demographic transition in China.The study finds that:1)The Children’s dependency ratio has a promoting effect on housing prices,but after 2010,with the decrease of Children’s dependency ratio,the obvious effect of Children’s dependency ratio on housing prices will disappear;2)The elderly dependency ratio has an inhibitory effect on housing prices,but its effect may weaken with the rise of housing prices;3)Sex ratio imbalance has a significant positive correlation with housing prices,the higher the sex ratio,the stronger the promotion effect on housing prices;4)Gender imbalance and Children’s dependency ratio have no interactive effect on housing prices,but it weakens the inhibitory effect of elderly dependency ratio on housing prices.