Research On The Spatial Effect Of New Urbanization On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Since entering the 21st century,changes in the world,times,and history are accelerating their evolution.The challenges and risks that China’s economic and social development needs to address are more complex,but at the same time,it is also facing new strategic opportunities.Based on the new era,China insists on taking promoting high-quality development as its primary task,accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode,and constructing a new development pattern.As the core of economic structure,industrial structure can fully unleash the endogenous power of development and achieve high-quality and cost-effective growth only by accelerating the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and taking an intensive and connotative development path.New urbanization promotes the free flow of production factors,effectively improves the efficiency of rational allocation of resources,stimulates market consumption demand,and optimizes the spatial layout of industries,providing a good development foundation for the upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure with new urbanization is an inherent requirement and inevitable choice for achieving high-quality economic development,and an inevitable trend in responding to the new domestic and international situation.In order to explore the spatial impact of new urbanization on industrial structure upgrading,this article first analyzes the mechanism of the interaction between new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading based on theoretical basis analysis,and proposes corresponding research assumptions;Secondly,construct a new urbanization evaluation index system,starting from the two dimensions of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization,based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021,using entropy weight method,Kernel density estimation method,global and local Moran’s I index,LISA cluster analysis,and other methods,analyze the development status of China’s new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading from three perspectives: regional differences,dynamic evolution,and spatial agglomeration;Furthermore,the spatial Dubin model with fixed effects is selected to study the spatial spillover effect of new urbanization on industrial structure upgrading;Finally,we introduce population aging as a regulatory variable to explore the regulatory role of population dividend regression on the impact of new urbanization on the upgrading of industrial structure.Through empirical analysis,the main conclusions are as follows: First,at present,the development level of new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading in China has shown a stepwise distribution pattern of "east central west" decreasing in order,and has maintained a steady upward trend.The overall development level of new urbanization is not high,showing a state of polarization,and its relative gap is gradually expanding,while the degree of difference in industrial structure upgrading in various provinces is continuously narrowing;Secondly,there are significant positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration effects in China’s new urbanization,industrial structure upgrading,and industrial structure rationalization,mainly presenting a spatial distribution state of "high-high" and "low-low" agglomeration;Thirdly,the new type of urbanization not only significantly promotes the upgrading and rationalization of the industrial structure in the region,but also has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas,but also has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas;Fourth,population aging will weaken the positive spatial spillover effect of new urbanization on the rationalization of industrial structure in surrounding areas,while exacerbating the negative spillover effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in surrounding areas.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis proposes the following recommendations: First,scientifically plan urban development and accelerate the pace of new urbanization;Second,coordinate the integration of industry and city,and promote the upgrading of industrial structure;Third,strengthen regional collaboration and linkage,and bring into play the spatial spillover effect;Fourth,actively address the challenges of aging and seize new opportunities in the elderly care industry.