The Influence Of City Size On The Age Of First Marriage

Marriage is a kind of relationship between men and women,but at the same time,it has the particularity that other social relations do not have.Only the existence of marriage,can we form a family,and the family is the most basic unit of the whole society.However,there is an increasing delay in the age at which young people get married.Later marriage also means later childbearing.China’s population has maintained a low growth rate in recent years,and even experienced negative population growth for the first time in 2022.Low fertility rate has become a real problem facing China in the future.Low birth rate leads to slow growth rate of working-age population year by year,disappearance of demographic dividend,high wages,and transformation and upgrading of low-end industries.At the same time,it also leads to the problem of population aging,the increase of social medical security costs,the task of elderly care services intensified.All development depends on the people,all development for the people,society in order to sustainable development,high-quality development must pay attention to late marriage and late childbearing.In this paper,the empirical research is carried out through the CLDS(2018)data of China Labor Dynamics Survey and the cross-section data of city size in 2018(data from the National Statistical Yearbook,various city statistical yearbooks,the first to seventh national population censuses,Peking University Magic,China Prospective Database,etc.).The influence of city size on the age of first marriage was studied by using the method of least square method and COX proportional risk model.The research results reveal that :First,city size has a positive impact on the age of first marriage,that is the increase of city size will correspondingly delay the age of first marriage.With the change of times,the influence degree is gradually deepening,and the method of substituting variables(replacing explanatory variable city size from two aspects of measurement and time)and instrumental variables are used to confirm the model.Second,through the test of gender heterogeneity,it is found that the age of first marriage varies with different genders.The age of first marriage of Chinese men is significantly higher than that of females.The lag effect of urban size on the age of first marriage is also more evident in men than in women.Third,through the household registration heterogeneity test,the first marriage age of different household registration types is different.Compared with rural residents,the first marriage age of urban residents is later.Fourth,the level of education has a lag effect on the age of first marriage.The higher the level of education,the later the age of first marriage,and this effect is more significant for women compared with men.Through this study,it has practical significance for the country to pay attention to the phenomenon of delayed marriage and the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend.Few existing papers have measured the urban size from land,population and economy,and more studies have analyzed the phenomenon of delaying the age of first marriage from the perspectives of marriage concept,population migration and high cost of living.There are few papers on the influence of urban size on the age of first marriage.This paper analyzes the influence of urban size on the delay of the age of first marriage and its effect through the empirical study on the age of first marriage,which provides data basis for people to understand the status quo of the age of first marriage,pay attention to the problem of late marriage and late childbearing,and establish a correct view of marriage and love.It provides a certain theoretical basis for the government to implement accurate population promotion policies,alleviate the aging population,adjust the urbanization process,control the scale of large cities,and promote the development of small and medium-sized cities.