Internet Sentiment Analysis: Investigating Investor Concerns And Their Impact On Systemic Risk In The Banking Network

With the rapid development of the Internet,an increasing number of investors browses the stock information which they want.They can search with variety network platforms and speak freely when they face topics of interest to them.However,because of the rapid development of the Internet,many traditional on-exchange trades have been transformed into Internet-based OTC trades.In the face of fast-paced development,investors will prefer to obtain sufficient information to help themselves trade.Nonetheless,the information among the major platforms is mixed,if investors do not have good professional knowledge to screen,it is likely to lead to fluctuations in the stock market,which will lead to systemic financial risks.Therefore,using emerging technologies to establish a public opinion analysis framework to identify public opinion factors that have an impact on the financial market has of great significance both in theory and practice to enrich the study of system finance risk.This paper studies more than 1 million information of 16 commercial bank stocks on the East Money Network from January 2018 to December 2022,crawls the information in the stock forums through the self programming multithread Python crawler program,and uses an improved method for measuring online public opinion,data analysis is conducted through text mining technology based on emotional lexicon.Finally three network public opinion factors including “attention”,“sentiment scores” and “disagreement” are constructed.Secondly,this paper also uses the asymmetric CoVaR model to measure the systemic risk of banks.Afterwards,the asymmetric CoVaR model was improved to study the corresponding systematic correlation and systemic risk of banks in different risk states.Then,construct a panel model to empirically analyze the impact of online public opinion on systemic risk in the banking industry under different states.At the same time,select the public emergencies in the research period of this paper to study the changes in the impact of online public opinion on the systemic risk of the banking industry before and after the event.Research has found that attention,emotional scores,and disagreement all have a significant impact on systemic risk.The higher the level of attention,the higher the level of systemic risk in the banking industry.The lower the emotional score and disagreement,the lower the level of systemic risk in the banking industry.Among them,emotional scores are the most important factor affecting systemic risk when in a normal environment.When banks are in difficulties or sudden public opinion events,attention is the most important factor affecting systemic risk.At the same time,based on the empirical conclusions drawn,suggestions are proposed from multiple perspectives such as government,regulatory agencies,and enterprises.