Small And Medium-sized Enterprise Loan Default Risk Evaluation Research For Chinese Commercial Bank

Small and medium-sized enterprises have the indelible contribution to our country’s economic development,and are an important part of the national economic development.For a long time,the problem of small and medium-sized enterprises difficult to get loans and loans have not been well solved.Although China has been vigorously promoting inclusive finance since 2016,the total amount of loans received by smes does not match their role in the market at all.The reason is that the existing credit risk evaluation systems of commercial banks tend to favor large enterprises with good financial indicators,and small and medium-sized enterprises are not very good customers for commercial banks due to the gap between their anti-risk ability and large enterprises.Therefore,it is the first step to establish the index system which conforms to the loan default risk evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises to get rid of the existing credit risk evaluation system of commercial banks and obtain credit resources better.On the basis of fully understanding the relevant concepts and theories,as well as the development and financing status of Chinese smes,and referring to the existing literature,this thesis puts forward a preliminary evaluation index system for the loan default risk of smes in commercial banks,and collects the data of 952 listed enterprises in China’s small and medium-sized board from 2019 to 2021 for empirical analysis.First,the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of various indicators.It is found that no matter how the economic development situation is in each year,the top five indicators are inventory turnover,accounts receivable turnover,intangible assets ratio,current ratio and total assets turnover,but the weight of these five indicators will fluctuate in the three years.In particular,inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover are two indicators.Through index classification and weight summations,it is found that commercial banks need to focus on the operation ability,debt paying ability and innovation ability of enterprises.TOPSIS method is used to rank 952 samples of smes,and it is found that the top five enterprises with small loan default risk in each year are different,indicating that the weight of evaluation indicators should be dynamically changed according to needs,while the evaluation results of the bottom five enterprises with large loan default risk in each year have relatively little difference.Based on this conclusion,this thesis holds that commercial banks should focus on long-term tracking of enterprises’ operation capacity and solvency before granting credit to smes.