| With the rapid development of China’s economy in recent years,the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial sector has been rising.Moderate leverage scale of non-financial sector and reasonable use of leverage funds can effectively promote the improvement of labor productivity,but with the increasing leverage,the debt burden of non-financial sector is too heavy,which will lay hidden dangers for systemic financial risks.Therefore,in order to improve China’s labor productivity and maintain the stable development of China’s economy,it is the focus of this paper to explore the reasonable scale of leverage in China’s non-financial sector and guide the flow of leverage funds in China’s non-financial sector that can significantly improve labor productivity.After combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper analyzes from the following aspects: First,the impact path analysis,first of all,from the perspective of technological progress,resource allocation efficiency,capital deepening and human capital,analyzes the impact path of non-financial sector leverage on labor productivity,and then analyzes the impact mechanism of household leverage,non-financial enterprise leverage and government leverage on labor productivity through the above four impact paths.Secondly,In the aspect of current situation analysis,the overall analysis of the sample data shows the current situation of non-financial leverage and labor productivity in 24 countries in 2021,and then analyzes the current situation of leverage and labor productivity in the United States and Russia’s non-financial sectors and the relationship between them;Select the data of leverage ratio of four sectors in China from 2006 to 21 to analyze the impact of leverage ratio of non-financial sectors on labor productivity.Once more,In terms of building the indicator system,this paper selects the panel data of 24 countries from2000 to 2021,and constructs an indicator system with non-financial sector leverage,non-financial enterprise leverage,government leverage and resident leverage as the explanatory variables,and labor productivity as the explanatory variables.At last,In terms of empirical analysis,this paper first conducts benchmark regression analysis,and then selects the threshold model for empirical analysis to study the relationship between the leverage ratio of the non-financial sector and labor productivity,and separately studies the impact of the three leverage ratios included in the leverage ratio of the non-financial sector on labor productivity.According to the empirical results,the following conclusions can be drawn: First,there is a single threshold effect between non-financial leverage and labor productivity.A certain scale of physical sector debt can effectively promote labor productivity,but the positive impact of non-financial leverage on labor productivity will be weakened because the leverage ratio exceeds a certain limit;Second,there is no obvious threshold effect of household leverage on labor productivity,there is a single threshold effect of non-financial enterprise leverage on labor productivity,and there is a double threshold effect of government sector leverage on labor productivity.When the government leverage is at a certain stage,the impact on economic growth is negative.To sum up,this paper believes that the leverage ratio of the non-financial sector plays an important role in China’s labor productivity.Only by controlling the non-financial sector debt at a reasonable scale can China’s labor productivity be maintained at a high level.This paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: "deleveraging" while stabilizing labor productivity;Optimize the financing channels of non-financial enterprises and guide the flow of leveraged funds;Adhere to the principle of "no speculation on housing and housing" and relieve the pressure of housing loans from the root;Government departments should optimize the leverage structure.I hope to make contributions to the stable development of China’s economy. |
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