The Network Transmission Path Of Regional Financial Risk In Spatial Dimension And The U-shaped Correlation Analysis With Leverage Ratio

Since the eighteenth congress,financial reform and regulatory continues to advance,the financial sector is gradually growing,due to the rapid development of Internet financial,combined with the formation mechanism and transmission mechanism of financial risk particularity,between the different areas of financial risk on the space with a strong correlation,infectious features,in addition,China's financial market operation system,supervision mechanism is not yet mature,more easily influenced by other factors,the spatial relations between related factors and regional financial risk research still is not perfected.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to effectively prevent and dissolve regional financial risks by timely and accurate control of financial risks and further research on regional financial risks at the spatial level.Therefore,this article selects the financial market development is relatively mature three economic area,bohai sea region,Yangtze river delta,pan-pearl river delta region as the research object,based on the panel data from 2000 to 2018,according to today's financial markets risk characteristics,using the random forest model in the second chapter to measure financial risk for the three major economic regions.Current research about regional financial risk spatial dimension is based on a single geographic distance or economic distance,this paper combined with spatial econometric weight of space and social network analysis theory,construct the regional financial risks associated with social network matrix,as a third chapter to fifth chapter under the spatial dimensions of regional financial risk research foundation.In order to determine the spatial correlation and distribution of financial risks in three economic regions,the spatial correlation and contagion effect of regional financial risks are studied in chapter 3 with the help of social network analysis theory and tools.The social network matrix constructed above is taken as the spatial weight of the spatial model in chapter four and five,and the spatial nonlinear relationship between the systematic sources of risks,financial leverage ratio and regional financial risks is studied respectively.It is found that the financial risks in the three economic regions have an obvious linkage effect,and the risk fluctuation range and size are close to each other.Regional space correlation present in bohai sea area of financial risk as the core,the Yangtze river delta and pan-pearl river delta region further expansion of uneven distribution,space connection state in space of the complex network structure,according to the relationship between regional financial risk,it can be divided into four different location type,completely open module,agent module respectively,bidirectional overflow module,the main damaged module,which belongs to the completely open module the validity for the risk of regional finance risk source,belong to the agent module the validity for the risk to infectious agents,geographic location and economic strength for the key factors influencing the region belongs to module;From the perspective of the formation mechanism of systemic financial risks,the main sources of regional financial risks are external shocks and banking markets.The financial leverage ratio of the bohai rim region and the regional financial risk show a significant nonlinear u-shaped relationship in space,the Yangtze river delta region shows a nonlinear u-shaped relationship in time,and the pan-pearl river delta region shows a nonlinear half-u-shaped relationship in time.Finally,some policy Suggestions are put forward.