Research On The Fertility Effect Of Household Leverage Ratio In China

Over the past two decades and more,China's population growth has been maintained at a low fertility rate.The policies of “selective two-child” and “universal two-child” have made some achievements in promoting the birth of a second child.However,the policy effect is relatively short,and the birth rate of a second child has declined after two years of recovery.The long-term depression of the one-child fertility rate and the profound transformation of the behavior of marriage and childbearing are the distinct characteristics of the low fertility rate at the present stage,which indicates that the driving force of the low fertility rate in China has changed from “exogeneity” to“endogeneity”.Under the background of persistently low fertility rate,the influencing factors of fertility or the causes of low fertility rate are the core issues in the research on family fertility in China.Stimulating the recovery potential of family fertility rate is of far-reaching significance for promoting the balanced development of population and maintaining the vitality of economic growth.Based on the endogenous perspective of family fertility decision-making,this paper explores the theoretical relationship between household leverage ratio and low fertility from the fact of rapid growth of household leverage ratio,and empirically test it with micro data,which deepens the discussion on the influencing factors of low fertility in China,and helps to stimulate rational thinking about the sustainability of household leverage ratio.Focusing on the core research topic of the fertility effect of household leverage ratio,this paper systematically discusses three issues: the dynamic relationship between leverage ratio and optimal fertility level in family fertility decision-making,whether and how household leverage ratio affects actual family fertility behavior,and the transmission mechanism of household leverage ratio affecting fertility.The results are as follows:Firstly,the fertility effect of household leverage ratio is significant,and it is reflected in the three dimensions of fertility quantity,progress and gender preference.The increase of household leverage ratio has the effect of crowding out the number of children and delaying the birth schedule,and also weakens the family preference for sons.Secondly,the increase of household leverage ratio will also have a weak promotion effect on fertility through relaxing current budget constraints and housing wealth effect,but the overall effect is still negative.Third,the fertility effect of household leverage ratio is heterogeneous among families with different characteristics,and the fertility level of urban families,low asset families and families without intergenerational care are more vulnerable to the negative impact of the rising leverage ratio.Fourthly,the income constraint caused by the increase of household leverage ratio is the leading force for families to reduce fertility.In addition,household leverage ratio can also affect fertility by promoting women's labor participation,reducing marriage satisfaction and strengthening fertility anxiety.The research of this paper,to a certain extent,fills the deficiency of the research on population transition,low fertility rate and population development strategy,and expands the theory and empirical analysis of family birth decision-making,so as to provide theoretical basis and policy reference for the government to adjust the fertility policy and prevent population and economic risks.Due to the limitation of sample size and the unavailability of data,this study has some limitations,but the theoretical analysis and research conclusions are generally reliable.The specific research contents and structure are as follows.The first chapter is the introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the research background,research significance,domestic and foreign literature review,research ideas,research methods,research innovations and deficiencies of this paper.The second chapter is the concept and theoretical analysis of household leverage ratio and fertility.It focuses on the related basic theories,including the theory of household life cycle debt,the theory of population transition and the theory of low fertility.At the same time,combined with the empirical research design of this paper,it summarizes the fertility theory from the perspective of family economics,including the cost-benefit theory,Becker's fertility decision theory,the choice theory of quantity and quality of children and the family time allocation theory.The third chapter analyzes the status quo of household leverage ratio and fertility level.This chapter makes an empirical analysis on the development trend and main characteristics of the process of low fertility in China,the level and development trend of Chinese household leverage ratio and its driving factors.On this basis,this chapter evaluates the level of household leverage ratio in China through international comparison.The research content of this chapter lays an important foundation for the fertility effect model of household leverage ratio and its empirical analysis in the following chapters.The fourth chapter is the fertility effect model and theoretical hypothesis of household leverage ratio.Based on the theory of fertility decision and family time allocation,this chapter introduces the number of births,birth costs and benefits,intergenerational care,household leverage ratio and other factors to build a theoretical model of fertility decision-making of household leverage ratio.According to the principle of utility maximization,the dynamic relationship between leverage ratio and family optimal fertility level is established.The main conclusion is that there is a negative correlation between the optimal number of births and household leverage ratio.The fifth chapter is the empirical test of the fertility effect of household leverage ratio.Based on the theoretical model and inferences,econometric models are constructed,and the fertility effect of household leverage ratio is empirically analyzed using the data of Chinese Family Panel Studies,including three dimensions of the quantity effect,the tempo effect and the gender preference effect.Thereafter,in order to test whether the conclusion is reliable,this paper tests the robustness from changing the data,variable definition and empirical methods.The sixth chapter is the heterogeneity analysis of the fertility effect of household leverage ratio.According to the differences in family characteristics,this chapter makes a more detailed analysis on the fertility effect,and tests the heterogeneity influence of household leverage ratio on urban and rural families,families with different asset levels and families with different intergenerational care.The seventh chapter is the influence mechanism analysis of the fertility effect of household leverage ratio.This chapter further uses the structural equation model(SEM)to empirically test the mechanism of female labor force participation rate,marital satisfaction and childbearing anxiety that the household leverage ratio has impact on fertility.The eighth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test above,the research conclusions of this paper are summarized,and relevant policy suggestions are put forward to prevent and control the excessive growth of household leverage ratio and improve the fertility of urban and rural families in China.