Dynamic Analysis Of Physical Fitness Of 3~6 Year Old Preschoolers In Ningxia From 2000 To 2020 And Prediction By Grey Model

Objective Dynamic analysis of physical fitness of 3～6 year old preschoolers in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020 and prediction by Grey Model,to offers theoretic foundation and reference for relevant departments to formulate physical health development plan and teaching physical education and health relevant course for preschool children.Methods In this study,the data is based on the Ningxia National Physical Fitness Monitoring Bulletin,the common basic indicators or derived indicators of physique monitoring during 2000-2020 were selected.Analysis of Variance(ANOVA)was used to analyze the trend of physical fitness indicators of 3～6 year old preschool children in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020.Thile the physical fitness indicators of 3～6 year old preschool children in Ningxia from 2025 was predicted by Non-Equidistant Grey Residual Model GM(1,1).Results(1)From 2000 to 2020,the height/weight/(Body Mass Index)BMI of 3～6 year old preschool children in Ningxia showed an increasing trend,the continuous jump of both feet showed a declining trend,the stature-sitting height index/stature-chest circumference index/sit and reach showed fluctuations or stabilizing,and the quiet pulse and standing long jump showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing,with the quiet pulse forming an "inflection point" in 2005 and the standing long jump forming an "inflection point" in 2010.(2)In all periods,the mean values of height/weight/BMI/stature-chest circumference index/standing long jump of boys was larger than girls,the quiet pulse/sit and reach less than girls;Boys and girls stature-sitting height index/jump continuously with both feet at high and low.(3)The height/weight/quiet pulse/sit and reach growth extent of boys was less than girls,the BMI larger than girls;the change in stature-sitting height index was less between boys and girls;and the stature-chest circumference index/standing long jump/continuous jump decrease extent of boys was larger than girls.(4)It is predicted that the body shape indicators/standing long jump/sit and reach of 3～6 year old preschool children in Ningxia will be on the rise in 2025;quiet pulse and jump continuously with both feet will be on the decline.Conclusion The body shape of of 3～6 year old preschool children in Ningxia is well developed,but overweight and obesity are on the rise;the physical function is getting better;elevated coordination and exertion of both feet,but the muscle strength and explosive power of lower limbs decreases,and flexibility improves less.However,the height/physical function/physical fitness indicators actual value may be lesser than the predicted value due to the impact of COVID-19,the weight/BMI actual value may be higher than the predicted value.