Has The Two-child Policy Promoted Birth

By the end of 2022,China has decreased by 850,000 people compared with the end of 2021,and the total population has experienced negative growth for the first time.This was mainly caused by the following two factors.First,women of childbearing age continue to decrease;Second,fertility levels continue to decline.In fact,China has been constantly exploring to relax the birth policy after entering the 21st century,hoping to achieve the purpose of promoting family fertility and allowing the fertility level to recover,but the effectiveness of the continuous relaxation of the birth policy in the past 20 years seems to be only reflected in the increase in the birth rate in the year when the policy was announced.Therefore,it is worth exploring whether the continuously relaxed birth policy can really promote the fertility of families,and it is very meaningful to clarify the relevant factors behind it.Based on the "selective two-child" policy implemented by the state at the end of 2013 and the "universal two-child" policy implemented in early 2016,this paper selects the data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2012,2014,2016 and 2018,and uses the contingency table chi-square test,binary choice model,PSM,DID,PSM-DID to analyze whether the two two-child policies have promoted the birth of the target families of the policy,and conducts robustness tests on the results by transforming the dependent variables and changing the sample size to increase the reliability of the results.At the same time,this paper analyzes the impact of the two two-child policies on the fertility of different types of families by subdividing the family types into different household registration,different income levels and different one-child genders,and analyzes the reasons behind the results.In the end,this paper makes the following conclusion.First,on the whole,neither of the two two-child policies can promote the fertility of the target families.Second,for families with different registration,the "selective two-child" policy had no promoting effect,and the"universal two-child" policy had a weak promoting effect on non-agricultural account families.Third,for families with different income levels,the "selective two-child" policy had no promoting effect,and the "universal two-child" policy had a weak promoting effect on families with middle and high income levels.Fourth,for families with different one-child genders,the two two-child policies had no promoting effect.