| Probability is one of the important areas of mathematics learning in compulsory education and upper secondary education.The first understanding of the possibility of random events in elementary school as the basic knowledge of probability learning;In junior high school,they began to try to quantitatively describe the probability of random phenomena with probability and understand the meaning of probability;In high school,students learn various probability models and emphasize the application of probability knowledge.Therefore,it is crucial for all students to develop probabilistic thinking and identify probabilistic models when solving problems.Probability problems,on the other hand,are often based on real-world situations and presented in the form of application titles.Therefore,the high school sophomore in Anhui Province were investigated by questionnaire and probability application test,and aims to explore the influencing factors of high school sophomores solving probabilistic application problems through qualitative and quantitative analysis,and puts forward the following three research questions:(1)How specifically do high students perform in solve probability word problems?(2)What are the main influencing factors for high school students to solve probability word problems?(3)To help students better understand the concept of probability and improve the correct rate of solving probability word problems,what teaching strategies should be adopted?To clarify the above issues,this research uses the literature review and questionnaire survey.The previous research on application problems is analyzed and summarized,the influencing factors of solving mathematical word problems are selected to be generally recognized,the subjects are surveyed and tested on paper and pen,and the significant influencing factors of high school students’ solving probabilistic word problems are explored through qualitative analysis of test papers and quantitative analysis of questionnaires.The study found that some students are more difficult to solve specific and close to practical problems,and cannot successfully extract effective information from the situation when solving probability word problems,and the reason is cognitive bias against probability concepts,such as cognitive problems such as intuitive bias.Students’ internalization of the problem presentation is not appropriate enough,and the way the problem is represented will directly affect the difficulty and speed of problem solving.Students do not have a deep understanding of the five probability models learned in high school,and there are model recognition errors or model confusion.In addition,students’ self-monitoring ability will also affect the results of solving probabilistic word problems.By means of quantitative analysis of the questionnaire,the main influencing factors presented in the test paper were verified,namely situational understanding,problem representation,problem classification,calculation error and low metacognitive monitoring ability.On the basis of the above findings,this paper proposes the following teaching recommendations:first,deepen students’ understanding of the concept of probability and reasonably carry out concept teaching;The second is to enhance situational teaching and enrich problem situations;The third is to strengthen students’ ability to characterize multiple problems;The fourth is to improve students’ mathematical metacognitive ability. |