Study On The Impact Of The Comprehensive Two-child Policy On The Demand For Commercial Pension Insurance

China’s long-term implementation of family planning policy,has been conducive to sustained economic growth and long-term sustainable development,but the implementation of the policy has also brought about an increasingly prominent population aging problem,the working-age population in 2011 reached a peak of 925 million people after the decline year by year,the demographic dividend gradually disappeared,in this context,China in 2014 to open the "single two-child" policy,the birth population of that year 16.87 million,year-on-year growth is not significant;in2016,China officially implemented the "comprehensive two-child" policy.The data of the seventh national census released in 2021 shows that the birth rate is still further declining,the degree of aging is increasing,the average number of households has fallen below 3,and the traditional family structure is gradually dissolving.Aging and the extension of life expectancy bring greater burdens to the pension system,but at the same time there are problems such as fragmentation,structural imbalance,insufficient enthusiasm for payment,etc.,it is difficult to meet the needs of the aging population for old-age security,and it is necessary to develop a multi-level old-age security system including the third pillar to increase pension assets.China’s current pension insurance system adopts the three-pillar system proposed by the World Bank: the first pillar is the basic pension insurance led by the government department,the second pillar is the enterprise annuity and occupational annuity for the independent development of enterprises,and the third pillar is the pension accumulation carried out by individuals based on commercial insurance.At this stage,China is mainly based on the first pillar,the third pillar is underdeveloped,and the structure is relatively unbalanced,but the state is taking positive measures to encourage the development of the secondary and tertiary industries.In 2018,the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Project of Individual Tax Deferred Commercial Pension Insurance,and decided to implement the pilot tax deferred pension insurance in three places from May 1,2018;on February 21,2022,the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice of the General Office of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Expanding the Pilot Scope of Exclusive Commercial Pension Insurance",deciding to expand the pilot scope of exclusive commercial pension insurance,and the development of commercial pension insurance ushered in good opportunities.This paper examines the impact of the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on the demand for commercial pension insurance.In 2016,the "comprehensive two-child" policy was officially implemented.Therefore,2016 was used as the policy shock year,and the data of the "China Household Tracking Survey" in 2014 and 2016 were selected for empirical analysis.The main explanatory variables are the impact of the "comprehensive two-child" policy,which is interpreted as the demand for commercial pension insurance,and the control variables include education level,age,gender,marital status,family size,income level,health status,social insurance participation and urban and rural and regional classifications.The one-child families with a second child were divided into "experimental groups",and the one-child families and the two-child families who did not have children were divided into the "control group",and the double difference(DID)estimation method was used to test the effectiveness of policy implementation,and the placebo effect test was used to test the robustness,and then the mediating effect of the family size variable was tested,and the heterogeneity with urban and rural areas and different regions was tested.After empirical analysis,it can be concluded that:(1)the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy can enhance demand of residents’ who have willingness to have a child for commercial pension insurance,and the role is more significant;(2)age,income level,education level,and family size have a significant impact on residents’ willingness to purchase commercial pension insurance.Age,family size and the demand for commercial pension insurance are negatively correlated,and income level and education level are positively correlated with the demand for commercial pension insurance;(3)Social endowment insurance will have a certain crowding out effect on commercial endowment insurance,the higher the participation of the former,the lower the willingness to buy the latter;(4)the family size variable has a part of the intermediary effect,that is,under the influence of the "comprehensive two-child" policy,the number of families with two children increases,the size of the family expands,but the increase in a series of costs such as maintenance will reduce the remaining disposable income of the family in disguise,and in the context of the miniaturization of the family scale,the internal security function of the family is weakened.Thus making residents seek old-age security and pension sources,the desire to buy commercial pension insurance will rise;(5)the difference between different regions will also affect the residents’ willingness to buy commercial pension insurance,from the empirical results,the purchase willingness of residents in urban areas and central areas is more significantly affected.Finally,according to the empirical process,three policy suggestions were put forward: one is to improve the corresponding supporting measures to improve the implementation effect of the birth policy;the second is to encourage insurance companies to enrich product forms,improve product quality,promote the combination of products and services,and improve attractiveness;the third is to use a variety of publicity methods to enhance public awareness.