The Effect Of Pension Insurance On The Birth Of The Second Chil

At present,the problem of "fewer children " and "aging" caused by low fertility not only plagues the balanced development of China's population structure,but also restricts the sustainable development of China's economy.To cope with the "fewer children" problem of the population,China implemented the "two children alone" policy and the "all-round two children" policy.In order to cope with the "aging" problem of population,China vigorously develops and improves the basic pension insurance system.However,pension security has substitute and complementary effects on family supporting,which may have adverse effects on childbearing and conflict with the goal of the "all-round two children" policy to stimulate childbearing.Under the background of "two child" policy,what impact will pension insurance have on second childbearing? This article studies this problem.Focusing on the impact of pension insurance on the second childbearing behavior,combined with China's fertility policy and basic pension insurance system,through the empirical analysis of China's family tracking survey data(CFPS),this article mainly focuses on:(1)in general,what kind of impact will participation in basic pension insurance have on the second childbearing behavior of one-child families?(2)Under the background of "two children alone" policy and "all-round two children" policy,what is the impact of basic pension insurance on the second childbearing of one-child family?(3)Is the impact of basic pension insurance on second childbearing heterogeneous in the types of insurance,urban and rural attributes of families,and regional attributes of families?(4)What is the mechanism of pension insurance's influence on second child bearing?This article consists of five chapters: The first chapter is the introduction.Firstly,introduce the research background and significance of this article are elaborated,and the research problems of this article are put forward.Secondly,the literature review is carried out from four aspects: the development and change of pension model,the impact of China's fertility policy and its changes on fertility,the impact of pension insurance on fertility,and the impact of pension insurance on fertility under the background of the "two child" policy.Finally,it summarizes the innovation and shortcomings of this article.The second chapter is the part of theoretical analysis.Based on the previous fertility theory and literature review,this chapter combs the influence of pension insurance on fertility,as well as the possible mechanism.Finally,under the background of China's unique fertility policy,three hypotheses are put forward for the following empirical research.The third chapter is the part of empirical analysis.Firstly,it introduces the data sources and model setting,mainly introduces the data sources of this article(five periods of CFPS data in 2010,2012,2014,2016 and 2018),and explains the empirical sample selection in the following article.Then it carries out benchmark regression and empirical analysis in three samples: sample without considering specific policy,samples in two different backgrounds of the "two children alone" policy and the "all-round two children" policy.Finally,the robustness test and the endogenous problem are discussed.The fourth chapter is the further analysis of the impact of pension insurance on the second childbearing,which mainly includes heterogeneity analysis and mechanism test.The heterogeneity analysis is carried out from three different latitudes: the heterogeneity of participation,urban-rural heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity.The mechanism are the substitution effect of pension insurance on family supporting and the impact and influence of pension insurance on traditional fertility concept.The fifth chapter is the conclusion,policy recommendations and research prospects.The results show that:(1)in general,participation in basic pension insurance will significantly inhibit the family's second childbearing.In the case of no specific second-child policy,basic pension insurance will reduce the possibility of the second childbearing by about 1.7%.Under the background of "two children alone" policy and "all-round two children" policy,the inhibitory effect of basic pension insurance on the birth of second child is 10.2% and 5.1% respectively.This empirical result also provides a further empirical test and supplement from the family's actual second childbearing behavior for the relevant research on the suppression of residents' fertility intention by basic pension insurance.(2)In the analysis of heterogeneity,it is found that the trend of heterogeneity is similar in different samples.Specifically,participation in the basic pension insurance for urban workers significantly inhibited the family's second childbearing,while participation in the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents had no significant effect on the family's second childbearing;the significant inhibitory effect of participation in the basic pension insurance on the family's second childbearing was mainly reflected in the urban families,but had no significant effect in the rural families;in different samples,the families in the eastern region had no significant effect The basic pension insurance has a significant inhibitory effect on the second childbearing.(3)Combined with the reality of our country,there are two main influencing mechanisms of pension insurance on the birth of second children: one is to replace the traditional family support mode relying on the number of children to a certain extent,which will lead to the reduction of the birth behavior of second children;the other is to shock and weaken the traditional birth concepts such as "valuing sons over daughters" and "sons inherit the family",thus affecting people's choice of second child.Based on the above analysis,in order to better deal with and solve the problem of "fewer children" and " aging" problem,this article puts forward that we need to give consideration to the development of fertility policy and basic pension insurance system.On the one hand,we need to further liberalize the fertility policy to encourage fertility,on the other hand,we need to further improve and coordinate the development of basic pension insurance system to provide a better level of social security.In addition,considering the conflict between the development of the pension insurance system and the goal of the two child policy,we can also learn from foreign experience,establish and improve the birth allowance and child care system,relieve people's fertility pressure,offset the inhibitory effect of the basic pension insurance system on fertility,and achieve the overall goal of promoting fertility.In addition,the data limitations,as well as many conditions of the sample selection process,may result in a small number of effective samples and other issues,this article also needs to be further improved.