The Impacts Of Population Structural Changes On The Income And Expenditure Of Basic Old-age Insurance Fund In China

As the social welfare system covering the largest number of people in the world,the basic old-age insurance system established in China is called a "world miracle".However,since the establishment of the basic old-age insurance system in China,it has brought the basic endowment insurance to the Chinese people,but also fell into the worry of "the imbalance between income and expenditure",which has drawn attention from all walks of life.As a matter of fact,the balance and sustainability of pension fund is the focus and problem to be solved all over the world.But with the changes of China’s population structure and the deepening of the aging population,the expenditure of the pension fund is showing a trend of increasing year by year.People’s concern about the balance of the pension fund is becoming more and more prominent,and the government is also actively exploring the sustainable development of the pension system.After all,the most basic influencing factor of the basic old-age insurance system is the person.Therefore,to discuss the income and expenditure problem of the pension under the realistic background,the most critical thing is to clarify the impact of the current changes in China’s demographic structure on the basic old-age insurance system.First of all,this paper sorts out,summarizes and analyzes the changing course of population structure,the actual situation,the developing course of basic old-age fund and the present situation of fund income and expenditure.Then,taking the income and expenditure of China’s basic old-age insurance fund as the research object,the population structure is divided into the natural population structure,the social population structure and the geographical population structure.The natural population structure is represented by children’s dependency ratio,elderly population dependency ratio and sex ratio.The social population structure is represented by family size,years of education and marriage structure.And the geographical population structure is represented by urbanization level.Then,using the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2010 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the impacts of population structure on the basic old-age insurance income and expenditure by the method of dynamic generalized method of moments.Finally,considering the difference of economic development,the paper analyzes the different influence of population structure on the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance fund under different economic development level.The empirical results show that:Firstly,the increase of old-age dependency ratio will bring about the increase of pension expenditure.And considering the irreversible aging trend in China,the expenditure of pension will continue to increase in the future.An increase in the average level of education would help pension funds’ surpluses.The direct impact of the average household size and the urbanization rate on the balance of fund’s income and expenditure is uncertain,but in terms of the parameter estimation,the average household size and the urbanization rate to fund income coefficient are larger than those of both to fund expenditure,but the difference is not very big,we can judge that the two also play a positive role in the balance of income and expenditure.According to the current situation of the demographic changes and the empirical results,this paper makes the following recommendations :The family planning policy should be appropriately adjusted and the supporting measures to encourage childbearing should be improved.Raising the retirement age gradually to ease the pressure on fund expenditure.The government should attach importance to family security and advocate building a harmonious family;continue to develop education,in particular expand the coverage of higher education;then it also should raise the level of urbanization and improve the social security in the process of urbanization;expand the coverage of basic old-age insurance and raise the participation rate of non-working urban resident and rural residents in old-age insurance.