Research On The Impact Of Political Relations And Institutional Distance On Trade Between China And Countries Along The Belt And Roa

At the informal meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)in2013,China put forward the vision of jointly building the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road",which has been an important economic and political initiative since 2013.After10 years,the construction of the “Belt and Road” has been continuously promoted and the cooperation between China and the countries along the route has been further developed.Although the “Belt and Road” construction has made great achievements,it still faces many difficulties and challenges in its construction process,the main challenges of which are political relations and institutional issues.The “Belt and Road”connects the most complex geopolitical regions in the world.With the special economic,political,cultural and religious environments and political turmoil of the countries along the route themselves,the issue of political relations and institutional differences has become a problem that we must face and solve when promoting trade exchanges.In this paper,42 countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2005 to 2020 are selected as samples,and adds institutional distance and political relations to the traditional trade model.The impact of political relations and institutional distance on bilateral trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" is examined in three dimensions.Among them,the political relationship is measured by the "ideal point index",while the formal institutional distance and informal institutional distance are measured by the global governance index and the Hofstede cultural index,respectively.The moderating effects of informal institutional distance on formal institutional distance and political relations are further explored.The results of the regression model of total trade show that the informal institutional distance has a facilitating effect on bilateral trade volume;political differences inhibit bilateral trade development,and this negative effect gradually increases with the increase of informal institutional distance;formal institutional distance has a positive effect on trade,but this positive effect gradually weakens with the increase of informal institutional distance.The results of the import/export regression model show that the formal institutional distance has a facilitating effect on both import and export,and the informal institutional distance inhibits the development of bilateral countries import/export trade,and the closer the political relationship is,the lower the import volume and the higher the export volume.In the export model,the informal institutional distance amplifies the positive effect of formal institutional distance and reduces the negative effect of political differences.However,the moderating effect in the import model is the opposite,i.e.,the greater the cultural differences between the two countries,the less the facilitative effect of the level of government governance on both sides on trade intentions,and the greater the inhibitory effect of political differences between the two sides on trade intentions.Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,the trade potential indices of China and the countries along the Belt and Road are measured.The results show that China and the sample countries along the "Belt and Road" all belong to the "potential development type",which indicates that the trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" is mature,but there is This indicates that the trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road is mature,but there is still a lot of room for development.In addition,among the 42 countries along the Belt and Road,21 of them have trade potential values lower than 1.0011,indicating that the policies under the Belt and Road Initiative have significant effects in specific countries or regions and have been tapped for their potential effects,further confirming their effects.This further confirms its effect.Finally,we propose the following policy recommendations: China should pay attention to the influence of institutional distance on trade development,continue to deepen the reform of Chinas relevant systems,and provide a good business environment for Chinas trade development;and strengthen cultural exchanges with other countries,guide the development of relevant cultural industries,introduce and cooperate with domestic and foreign university talents,and train more high-quality foreign trade talents for both countries in line with market expectations.In the meantime,it is necessary to evaluate foreign institutional systems and build a differentiated model to At the same time,it is necessary to assess the foreign system and build a differentiated model to shorten the distance of bilateral system as the core,and enhance the level of trade facilitation.