The Impact Of Institutional Distance On The Export Duration Of China’s High-end Manufacturing Products

As one of the most influential cooperation belts in the world,“the Belt and Road”initiative covers a wide range of areas and involves many countries.“The Belt and Road”Initiative has attracted worldwide attention since it was proposed in 2013.The development of high-end manufacturing is conducive to the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry chain and the development of “the Belt and Road” Cooperation Belt.In recent years,studies have shown that the system of the distance between the two countries will be in a certain extent,affected the export of high-end manufacturing products in our country,the research system from high-end manufacturing products export of our country the influence of the duration,for our country enterprise in the process of "going out" in a timely manner to evade system from the risk has a positive guiding significance.Scholars at home and abroad have studied the influence of institutional distance on the trade of high-end manufacturing products,but there is no research on the influence of institutional distance on the export of high-end manufacturing products from the perspective of trade duration.The trade duration studied in this thesis refers to the time interval between the beginning of China’s export of high-end manufacturing products to countries along “the Belt and Road” and the interruption of trade(no time interval).Firstly,the export scale,export product structure and export destination country structure of China’s high-end manufacturing products to countries along “the Belt and Road” are analyzed.The results show that the total export of China’s high-end manufacturing products shows a trend of steady growth,but the trade relationship at the micro level is not ideal.From 2008 to 2017,China’s exports of high-end manufacturing products to countries along “the Belt and Road” are mainly concentrated in 14 Countries in Asia and Oceania,and the markets in other regions need to be further explored.Secondly,with the help of survival function,this thesis takes the export data of China’s high-end manufacturing products from 2008 to 2017 as the research object to study the relevant situation of the export duration of China’s high-end manufacturing products to countries along “the Belt and Road”.According to the survival analysis,the average survival time of the export duration of the whole sample was 2.84 years,and the median survival time was 2 years.36.48% of China’s trade relationship with the export of high-end manufacturing products of “the Belt and Road” was interrupted only one year later,indicating that the trade relationship had obvious negative time dependence.This thesis uses a discrete-time Logit model with institutional distance as the explanatory variable,geographical Distance,the level of per capita income of importing countries,whether there is a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Agreement and whether there is a common official language or major language as the control variable are used to analyze the impact on the export trade duration of China’s high-end manufacturing products.The empirical results show that the greater the institutional distance,the shorter the export duration of high-end manufacturing products.According to WGI,this thesis divides institutional distance into six dimensions(discourse power and accountability,political stability,government efficiency,quality of supervision,rule of law,and control of corruption),and carries out Logit regression analysis on these six dimensions.The results show that the right of discourse and the accountability system have not passed the test of significance,which shows that this variable has little effect on the export duration of high-end manufacturing products.And government efficiency has a greater impact on the duration of exports than the other five components.When other variables are fixed,each additional unit of this indicator,the probability of interruption of export relationship of high-end manufacturing products is 1.361 times of the probability of export persistence.It also found that the smaller the geographical distance between the two countries,the higher the level of per capita income of the importing country,the signing of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade between the two countries,and the common official or principal language between the two countries,all these factors will have a positive impact on the maintenance of trade relations.In order to test the robustness of the model,this thesis applies Probit model and Cloglog model to the same samples,and finds that the results are robust.Finally,from the point of view of the government and enterprises,the thesis puts forward some suggestions on the problems existing in the export of high-end manufacturing products.