| The road traffic safety situation is still grim,and modern road traffic governance is facing new challenges.Systematic and in-depth exploration of the key causative factors and key causal chains of road traffic accidents can accurately and efficiently prevent road traffic accidents and promote the safe operation of the road traffic system.Therefore,this study innovatively uses the LDA-Cor Ex mixed topic model(Latent Dirichlet Allocation-Anchored Correlation Explanation)to dig deep into the road traffic accident investigation report,discover the causal theme of road traffic accidents and analyze the evolution characteristics of the theme,combining the theory of accident causation with road traffic accidents.On the topic of accident causes,an OIE(Organization-Individual-Environment)road traffic accident causation model was constructed,and a road traffic accident causation Bayesian network model was established from the organizational level,individual level,and system as a whole according to the OIE model to identify road traffic accidents.The key causal chain of the accident,combined with the theory of disaster reduction for chain breaks,explores chain breakage strategies from three aspects: source chain breakage,cause prevention,and crisis learning.The main work and important findings of this study are as follows:(1)The causes of road traffic accidents are mainly divided into three levels: organization,individual and environment.The organizational level includes road traffic safety management system,road traffic safety cultural atmosphere and road traffic safety supervision behavior,etc.The causal factors in three aspects;the individual level includes the three causal factors related to the road traffic ontology,such as people,vehicles,and roads;the environmental level includes the two causal factors of the natural environment and the social environment.(2)As time goes by,the influence of the causative factors at the organizational level continues to weaken,and the influence of the causative factors at the individual level gradually increases;the road traffic accidents in the eastern region are deeply affected by the causal factors at the individual level,while the northeast,the The road traffic accidents in the central and western regions are greatly influenced by the causal factors at the organizational level;with the increase of the accident level,the causal influence of people gradually weakens,and the causal influence of vehicles,roads and organizations increases.(3)The four groups of causal chains and related causative factors,which are caused by factors such as unsound safety management system,unsound safety education and training system,failure to establish hidden danger investigation and management system,night driving and rainy weather,are the causes of road traffic accidents.The key to happening.(4)Take measures to make drivers pay high attention to road conditions,improve the road traffic safety education and training system,educate drivers to refuse fatigue driving,establish and improve the system for the investigation and management of road traffic hidden dangers,improve the effectiveness of safety hazards investigation and management,improve drivers’ awareness of safe driving,and reduce speeding Driving phenomenon is an effective strategy to block the key causal chains of road traffic accidents. |
