Research On Road Traffic Accident Prediction Model And Its Application In Shandong Province

In the development process of human society,the way of travel has evolved from walking to car,high-speed rail and airplane.Among them,private cars began to be popularized gradually.Along with the rapid increase of the use of motor vehicles,the traffic environment problem is becoming more and more serious.Therefore,the problem of road traffic safety has become the research content of many scholars.In the research of road traffic safety,prediction research is an important step in the research It provides a safe environment for road traffic and theoretical support for the government to set goals and directions by predicting the future development trend.Based on the multiple linear theory,multi-level hierarchical theory and grey theory,this paper takes the data from the National Statistical Yearbook as the data,compares and analyzes the prediction methods of various road traffic accidents,and selects the optimal prediction model combined with the road traffic characteristics of Shandong Province.The main work and conclusions are as follows:1.Carry out a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of road traffic safety in Shandong Province,analyze the influencing factors of road traffic safety from a macro perspective,and put forward some suggestions to provide direction for the formulation of future traffic safety2.Because the road traffic system is a grey system,the grey relation analysis method is introduced to screen the influencing factors.The multiple linear regression model,multi-level hierarchical model and grey model are established.Through the comprehensive analysis of the fitting degree,prediction error,advantages and disadvantages of each model,the grey prediction model after the residual correction is finally selected as the optimal prediction model,which is suitable for the road traffic accident prediction in Shandong Province.At the same time,it makes a forecast of the future traffic safety situation in Shandong Province,which provides a reference for the prediction and prevention of traffic accidents in Shandong Province.