Risk Measurement And Influencing Factors Of Rural Low-income Groups Returning To Poverty

In 2021,China made remarkable achievements in the battle against poverty,lifting 98.99 million rural people out of poverty and resolving the problem of regional poverty.From the point of view of the whole country,absolute poverty has been eliminated,but there still exists a huge number of rural low income groups.How to avoid large-scale return to poverty is one of the most realistic and urgent problems for China to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation.Therefore,it is of great significance to measure the risk of rural lowincome groups returning to poverty and clarify the influencing factors for them to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and reduce the probability of returning to poverty.This study takes Shandong Province as an example,based on field investigation and indepth interview,combined with relevant theories of poverty governance,equity and justice,and conducted relevant research on the risk measurement and influencing factors of rural lowincome groups returning to poverty.Firstly,by means of questionnaire survey and interview,the basic situation of rural low-income groups in Shandong Province was analyzed,and it was found that the rural low-income groups were mainly the elderly living alone and the middleaged people with poor health status.Low education level,poor labor ability,high labor commitment rate,and lack of vocational skills are typical characteristics of such groups and families,leading to unstable or even unemployable employment.Most of them can only engage in simple agricultural production,and their families have a heavy economic burden,so they are more likely to fall into the trap of low income level.Secondly,on the basis of previous studies and the actual situation of Shandong Province,the index system of risk measurement of poverty return is constructed,including 12 indicators from four dimensions: economic income,family burden,public service and material loss.On the basis of determining the index weight,entropy weight method and systematic clustering are used to measure the risk of low-income groups returning to poverty,so as to clarify the risk of low-income groups returning to poverty in Shandong Province at this stage.Finally,a binary Logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the factors affecting the five low-income groups’ return to poverty.The empirical results show that health status,non-agricultural technical expertise,family size,labor force proportion and employment type have a significant impact on the return of subsistence recipients to poverty.Health status,family size and labor force ratio are the factors affecting the return of extremely poor people to poverty.The factors influencing the return to poverty mainly include: the number of employment training and the number of old people in the family;Factors influencing the return to poverty of people with spending difficulties include: health status,family size and number of serious illnesses;Factors that significantly influenced the return of other low-income populations to poverty include health status,off-farm skills,family size,labour force share,number of people suffering from serious illness and accident losses.In addition,the above regression results passed the robustness test.Based on the above research results,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the risk of poverty return of low-income groups from four aspects: improving the dynamic monitoring mechanism for poverty return,education and training mechanism,health assistance mechanism and employment security mechanism.