Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Manufacturing Technology Innovation

The research background of this paper is the population aging problem that comes with the continuous economic development of various countries.The aging population has seriously affected the population structure,and China is no exception.The aging of the population has two negative effects.First,the proportion of young people who are suitable for work has declined,so the shortage of labor supply has forced enterprises to think about the way out for transformation and upgrading;On the other hand,technological innovation in manufacturing cannot be separated from the continuous input of population.In order to achieve the goal of becoming a powerful manufacturing country and cope with the challenge of population aging to China’s economy and manufacturing industry,it is necessary to conduct a special analysis of the impact of population aging on manufacturing technology innovation,and demonstrate whether the former is an obstacle or a promoter to the latter.This has important theoretical value and practical significance in today’s deeply aging population.Firstly,according to the literature analysis on population aging and manufacturing technology innovation,it is found that the research conclusions of scholars on the exact direction of the impact of population aging on manufacturing technology innovation are different,and there is no unified conclusion.There are two main impacts: on the one hand,with the accumulation of experience and knowledge of the aging labor force,the aging of the population plays a positive role in promoting technological innovation in manufacturing;On the other hand,the aging of the population will reduce the supply of labor force,which will play a negative role in restraining the technological innovation of the manufacturing industry.In addition,there is a lack of empirical testing,especially on the impact path.Secondly,it theoretically analyzes the impact mechanism from three aspects,namely,population aging promotes manufacturing technology innovation by forcing enterprise transformation,population aging suppresses manufacturing technology innovation by crowding out scientific research investment through the burden of aging,and population aging affects technology innovation through human capital accumulation effect.Then the Arcgis2.0 software was used to conduct spatial visualization analysis on the population aging data,and the conclusion was drawn that the spatial distribution of the population aging degree had certain regularity: the aggregation degree in the Middle East was generally higher than that in the West,and the population aging degree in the West grew slowly.Thirdly,using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019.The explanatory variable is the population aging rate.The explained variable is manufacturing technology innovation.four control variables including urbanization rate,government role,fixed asset investment level,foreign investment level,and three intermediary variables including per capita education level,ratio of science and education expenditure to financial expenditure research expenditure,and relative wage level are introduced,Through two-way fixed effect panel measurement,it is concluded that the aging of China’s population has a significant negative impact on manufacturing technology innovation.From the perspective of specific impact path:(1)The aging population hinders technological innovation in manufacturing industry through the aging burden effect.(2)The aging of the population has promoted technological innovation in the manufacturing industry by pushing back the transformation of enterprises.(3)The aging of population promotes technological innovation of manufacturing industry through the accumulation effect of human capital.In order to make the conclusion more realistic and improve the results,we conduct a heterogeneity test on regions with different levels of economic development,fixed asset investment and per capita education through threshold regression.Finally,this paper has made innovations in perspective,intermediary variables and methods: the existing literature mostly studies economic growth,industrial structure upgrading,foreign trade and other aspects.From the perspective of population aging and technological innovation in manufacturing industry,this paper adopts three intermediary variables: per capita education level,ratio of science and education expenditure,and relative wage level,analyze and evaluate the spatial characteristics of population aging,and refine the development process to the whole,the east,the middle and the west.The empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on manufacturing technology was carried out,and the factors of population aging affecting total factor productivity were expanded and tested for robustness,which more effectively explained the causes of the impact factors and the extent of impact.There are some innovations,but there are deficiencies in data,index selection,theoretical extension and measurement methods.The follow-up research is more systematic and practical from more dimensions.