| After 40 years of reform and opening up,while our country’s economy has continued to grow and social undertakings have been steadily advancing,The cause of socialism has entered a new era.We are faced with a new background and development environment,which will put forward new tests for our country’s economic and social development.On the one hand,China’s economic development speed has shifted from high-speed to medium-high speed.Under the requirements of the new development concept,the transition to high-quality development is the main goal of the next stage.At the same time,a new round of scientific and technological revolution in the world is in the ascendant.We urgently need to transform from factor-driven to innovation-driven;on the other hand,China has entered an aging society since 2000.In 2019,the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above has reached 12.6%,the proportion of the elderly population is high,and the aging development speed is fast.For a long time to come,our country will be in the process of accelerating aging.Scientific and technological innovation is the key to enhancing the comprehensive strength of a country and driving the progress of the entire society,The aging of the population will bring about a decline in the physical fitness of scientific and technological workers,an increase in enterprise labor costs and an increase in the burden of social pensions.This will have an adverse effect on the scientific and technological innovation of a country.At the same time,the aging of the population will also force corporate and social to transform and arouse people’s attention to education,which is conducive to technological innovation.Therefore,clarifying how the aging of the population affects technological innovation has very important practical significance for my country’s economic transformation and social construction.The thesis combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods.In the theoretical analysis,by referring to the research results of the existing literature and combining with the actual situation of our country and principles of economics,this article analyzes and summarizes the positive and negative effects of population aging on technological innovation,summarizes the four paths that population aging affects scientific and technological innovation,They are,population aging promotes technological innovation through forced enterprise transformation,Aging suppresses technological innovation by squeezing scientific research expenditures,population aging suppresses technological innovation by reducing individual innovation capabilities,and population aging affects technological innovation by affecting the average number of years of education per capita.In the empirical analysis,this paper selects the relevant data of 30 provinces in my country from 2000 to 2018 for modeling verification.Under the guidance of theory,First of all,taking scientific and technological innovation as the explanatory variable and the level of population aging as the core explanatory variable,construct a panel regression model to analyze the relationship between the two variables.Technological innovation is a complex process involving multiple subjects and cannot be measured by a single indicator.Thus,I select the indicator system to measure from the three aspects of innovation input,innovation output and innovation support;secondly,take the output of new products of the enterprise,the ratio of pension expenditure to scientific research expenditure,per capita education level and individual innovation ability as intermediary variables and verify the existence of the influence mechanism through the step-by-step method proposed by Baron and Kenny;Finally,further empirical analysis is carried out to supplement and improve the results.On the one hand,it compares the effects of population aging on technological innovation before and after the promulgation of my country’s innovation policy;on the other hand,considering that this effect may be different under different external conditions,threshold regression is used to determine the level of economic development and transportation infrastructure.Areas with different facility levels and per capita education levels are tested for heterogeneity.The conclusions drawn from the empirical part are as follows,Firstly,the aging of the population in China has a significant negative impact on technological innovation,of which two influence paths are significant,the aging of the population mainly promotes technological innovation through forced enterprise transformation,the aging of the population mainly restrain scientific and technological innovation by lowering the per capita education level;secondly,after the promulgation of relevant innovation policies,the negative impact of population aging on technological innovation has become positive and insignificant.At the same time,In places where the level of economic development is high and the per capita level of education is high,the aging of the population does not significantly inhibit technological innovation.This article finally puts forward several countermeasures and suggestions,Our aim is to help my country’s economic restructuring,at the same time,to build a harmonious society in which the old are dependent and do good.The research characteristics of this paper are as follows,constructing index system to measure the ability of regional scientific and technological innovation,and in the empirical analysis part,the comprehensive evaluation score is used to measure technological innovation;Summarize and sort out the mechanism of my country’s population aging affecting scientific and technological innovation,and verify it with empirical analysis;and taking into account the different influence effects before and after the promulgation of the policy.However,there are still shortcomings in this paper,on the one hand,there are still other influence mechanisms to be explored;on the other hand,it is also a valuable research direction from micro-individuals such as scientific research workers. |
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