An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Saving Rate Of Chinese Residents

The national savings rate in China has been growing rapidly since the 21 st century,and the resident savings rate,as part of the national savings rate,has a very important role in the development of China’s economy,and in recent years,the resident savings rate has been increasing in the national savings rate.The amount of residents’ savings is closely related to the quality of life of residents,and can directly affect their consumption and investment behavior;higher residents’ savings can bring sufficient capital security for investment,thus promoting the stable development of China’s economy.However,at the same time,increasing residents’ savings means low consumption level from the perspective of consumption,which cannot expand domestic demand and is not conducive to the stable and healthy development of China’s economy,so the study of residents’ savings rate is an important economic and social issue that deserves serious consideration.According to the relevant measurement standards of the United Nations,China entered into an aging society as early as 2000,and in recent years,not only the degree of aging is deepening,but also the process of population aging is accelerating.The increasing elderly population will inevitably have an impact on the saving rate of the population,and scholars at home and abroad have conducted many studies and discussions on the connection between the high saving rate of the population and the aging of the population in China.In this paper,we divide the population aging into burden effect and longevity effect,and study its impact on the saving rate of residents with an eye on this effect.This paper first compares the existing domestic and foreign literature,and then introduces the reasons for the emergence of population aging in China and several important theoretical foundations of the effect of population aging on the existence of residential savings.The theoretical analysis of the burden effect and the longevity effect of population aging is also presented to understand how they affect the saving rate of residents,and then the research hypothesis of this paper is proposed based on the theoretical analysis that population aging affects the saving rate of residents through two mechanisms: old age dependency ratio and life expectancy per capita,respectively.In the empirical analysis,panel data of 31 provinces,cities,and autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 are first used,and the old-age dependency ratio and life expectancy per capita are selected as the core explanatory variables,and the juvenile dependency ratio,per capita disposable income growth rate,uncertainty of residents’ income,GDP growth rate,population urbanization rate,and inflation rate are selected as the control variables,and the two-factor A two-factor fixed-effects model is used to examine the impact of population aging on residents’ saving rate at the national level,and on the basis of this model,the country is further divided into four regions,namely,the east,the central,the west,and the northeast,for comparative analysis among regions.The empirical results show that at the national level,there is a significant negative correlation between the old-age dependency ratio and the residential savings rate,while life expectancy per capita has a positive effect on the residential savings rate.Among the control variables,there are significant positive correlations between the old-age dependency ratio,GDP growth rate and residential savings rate,and significant negative correlations between inflation rate and residential savings rate;in the analysis of different regions,there are no significant effects between the old-age dependency ratio,life expectancy per capita and residential savings rate in the eastern region;there are significant positive correlations between life expectancy per capita and residential savings rate in the central region,while there are significant positive correlations between life expectancy per capita and residential savings rate in the western and Life expectancy per capita has a significant positive correlation with the saving rate in the central region,but a significant negative correlation with the saving rate in the western and northeastern regions;population aging has a significant negative correlation with the saving rate in the western region,but it is not a significant factor affecting the saving rate in the central and northeastern regions.Finally,combining the theoretical analysis and empirical estimation results of this paper,we summarize the findings of this paper and put forward some feasible suggestions in terms of population aging and social policies.