| As an important industry closely related to our national economy and people’s livelihood and the real estate industry is not only an important pillar of China’s national economic development but also an important part of our national livelihood project.Since the 1980 s,China’s housing system has begun to reform,and the national real estate market is showing a trend of rapid development.Especially since 1998 when the real estate market in various cities has shown a rapid increase in both sales and prices,and of course accompanied by severe fluctuations.At the same time China’s population structure has also undergone a major transformation and completing the transition from a young to an elderly society.With the continuous deepening of the aging degree,the trend of declining birthrates is becoming more and more serious.All aspects are affected.At the same time the mobility between cities is increasing,and some special population problems have even formed,which is also closely related to the urban real estate market.Over time,subsequent studies in the academic community have gradually begun to propose similar effects of age structure on the housing market.Similarly,the impact of population mobility on house prices has also been verified in most studies especially at the urban level.China is also one of the most populous countries in the world so changes in the demographic structure may have a more profound impact on China.In particular,the family planning policy implemented in my country since the 1970 s has caused the total fertility rate to decline year by year.It is predicted that by 2025,the elderly population will exceed 300 million(nearly 20%).At present,the "4-2-1" family structure(a typical "4-2-1" family structure refers to a family with four grandparents,two parents and one child.This family structure is gradually developed under the family planning policy.Formed)is very common in China.Therefore,China is going through a very big demographic transition,which has formed a special population problem,and has formed a special population problem.So,especially in the city especially in the context of China it is necessary to study the relationship between demographic changes and house prices.In order to better clarify the relationship between price fluctuations in my country’s real estate market in recent years and the changes in the age structure of the population,this paper uses theoretical models and empirical tools to conduct in-depth research on this issue based on existing research.First,this article reviews the development process of China’s real estate market and the transformation process of China’s population structure,and qualitatively analyzes the relationship between changes in the age structure of China’s population and price fluctuations in the real estate market;secondly,The average price of commercial housing in China’s real estate market from 2000 to 2019 is selected as the explanatory variables,select the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio as explanatory variables and at the same time add relevant control variables and construct a panel model for regression analysis and find that: across the country,the juvenile dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio are both related to the price of the real estate market in China The relationship between changes in the opposite direction is further proved the fact that the "asset ablation" hypothesis is established in China’s real estate market.In recent years in order to maintain the sustainable development of the real estate market the Chinese government has implemented a purchase restriction policy since2010 to control the sharp rise in housing prices.Therefore,according to the conclusion of this paper,relevant policy recommendations are put forward for the government to regulate the price fluctuation of the real estate market and maintain the steady operation of the real estate market in my country. |
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