Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure, Pension Insurance And Residents' Consumption In My Countr

Consumption,as a driver of economic growth,is crucial to a country’s economic development.But according to the statistics of the World Bank,China’s household consumption rate is at a lower level and far below the world average,both compared with established developed countries and countries with the same income level.At present,the new crown pneumonia epidemic is spreading all over the world and global economic development is filled with uncertainties.Exposed to a complex economic situation,China’s economic growth model needs to be transformed.Therefore,consumption is placed on high expectations.Actually,the population is the main body of consumption activities.So when the age structure of population changes,it is bound to affect China’s consumption.According to the latest data of the seventh national census,the proportion of the population aged 0-14 and 65 and above in China is 17.95% and 13.5%,up 1.35% and4.63% respectively compared with 2010.It can be seen that the proportion of children and the elderly increased at the same time,and the latter increased more than the former.On the one hand,the degree of aging continues to deepen,and this basic national condition will remain unchanged at present and for a long time to come.On the other hand,in the future,China’s population growth rate will not be optimistic with the decrease of women of childbearing age and the change of people’s conception of childbearing.Therefore,China is faced with a severe problem of the coexistence of fewer children and aging.In order to actively respond to the aging,China has initially established a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age security system,among which the basic pension insurance plays a major role as the backbone.It provides a certain guarantee for people’s future pension,reduces residents’ uncertain feelings about the future and enhances their expectations for the future.So,people dare to consume and are willing to consume.As a consequence,under the above background,it is of practical significance to analyze the relationship between population age structure,endowment insurance and residents’ consumption.Considering that rural endowment security system has a relatively short development time and the level of it is limited in China,this paper is limited to studying the effect of urban employee endowment insurance on urban residents’ consumption.This article selects China’s provincial panel data of 31 provinces and cities in 2002-2019,builds the benchmark model,and joins the interaction of population age structure and endowment insurance based on this.For the purpose of investigating the differences between regions,heterogeneity analysis is carried out.Then,this article also constructs a panel threshold model with GDP per capita as threshold variables.Particularly,in the empirical study,the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio are standardized,so as to truthfully reflect the dependency burden of working-age people.The empirical results show that the child dependency ratio,the elderly dependency ratio and the endowment insurance all have a positive effect on the urban residents’ consumption.The interaction of child dependency ratio and endowment insurance weakens the positive effect of child dependency ratio on urban consumption,while the interaction of old-age dependency ratio and endowment insurance strengthens the positive effect of old-age dependency ratio on urban consumption.From a regional perspective,the child dependency ratio has a significant promoting effect on the consumption of urban residents in the eastern and western regions,while it has a negative effect on the central region.The old-age dependency ratio is positive and significant in the central region,while it has a significant negative enabling effect in the eastern region.The contribution rate of endowment insurance has a significant positive consumption effect in the east and west..The coverage of old-age insurance has brought a significant positive enabling effect in the central region,but it has a significant negative impact in the western region.In the threshold effect,with the gradual improvement of economic development level,the impact of child dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio,endowment insurance payment rate and endowment insurance coverage rate on urban residents’ consumption turns from negative to positive.In response to this,this paper makes the following proposals: increasing the birth to expand the scale of consumption;actively developing the silver industry,and opening up the elderly consumer market;improving the old-age security system to raise residents’ consumption expectations.